CAC 40: towards a positive opening ahead of the Fed meeting
At around 8:15 a.m., the future contract on the CAC 40 index - expiring at the end of August - climbed 73.5 points to 7563.5, suggesting a continuation of the timid rebound (+0.4%) begun the previous day.
The main economic event of the day will take place after the close of European markets, with the publication at 8:00 p.m. of the Fed's monetary policy statement following two days of discussions.
The central bank is not expected to change its key rates or make any spectacular announcements, but investors will be looking for signs of further rate cuts, given that inflation in the US is now approaching its 2% target.
"Jay Powell is expected (...) to confirm the high probability of the start of a monetary easing cycle in September, which the market has already accepted", predicts Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer, the likelihood of
rates falling by 25 basis points in the autumn is now estimated at over 87%.
While awaiting the Fed's verdict, the Bank of Japan overnight raised its key rate to 0.25%, continuing the process of normalizing its monetary policy after years of ultra-accommodative approach.
For Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, this decision should be interpreted as a 'sign of confidence and a message that the economy is now in a sufficiently solid situation'.
In China, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 50.2 in July, from 50.5 in June, which could call for further measures to support activity from Beijing.
The latest inflation figures for the eurozone, due at 11:00 a.m., should confirm the deceleration in price rises seen for almost two years now.
The consumer price index for July is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.4% year-on-year. Core inflation is expected to have fallen from 2.9% to 2.8% year-on-year.
In the USA, investors will be watching the monthly ADP private employment survey at 2.15pm, which will provide valuable insights into the health of the labor market two days ahead of the official employment figures.
A number of corporate results - including those from Danone, HSBC and Safran - will continue to drive the European session today, while in the US, Microsoft's results could weigh on the trend at the opening of Wall Street.
In pre-market trading, Microsoft lost over 2% after last night's better-than-expected second-quarter results, which also revealed a slowdown in its growth in the cloud.
On the bond front, US government bond yields are trading on imperceptible or just symbolic spreads as we await the Fed's announcements.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries is stabilizing at around 4.14%, while the 10-year Bund, the benchmark rate for the eurozone, stands at 2.34%.
Calm is also prevailing on the foreign exchange market, where the euro, by climbing back above 1.0820, is nevertheless managing to regain some ground against the dollar.
Oil prices - so far unaffected by renewed tension in the Middle East - are rallying ahead of the release of weekly crude inventories in the USA later this afternoon.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently up 1.8% at $76.1, while North Sea Brent is up 1.6% at $79.9.
Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
Go to the original article.
Contact us to request a correction