By Kirk Maltais
-- Corn for March delivery fell 1% to $4.43 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday as momentum created after the USDA cut corn ending stocks more than initially expected dried up.
-- Wheat for March delivery fell 0.8% to $5.58 3/4 a bushel.
-- Soybeans for January delivery were virtually unchanged at $9.95 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Hitting a High Point: Corn extended a pullback as the futures contract encountered resistance at the $4.50-a-bushel mark.
Lackluster export sales did little to change trader sentiment in morning trading, said Donna Hughes of StoneX.
"Exports were not that great for grains and with corn, we hit the multi-month resistance at $4.50 [a bushel]," Hughes said. "Need more ammunition to go higher."
Before Thursday's session, the continuous corn contract gained nearly 7% over the past 30 days.
Quenching Their Thirst: Winter wheat growing in the U.S. Plains has been under pressure this year because of drought issues, but those issues appear to have eased in recent weeks, allowing U.S. winter wheat to bounce back.
"The growing conditions in the U.S. are very good," said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group in a note. "Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady prices quoted in Russia and Argentina were around and helped keep the U.S. market steady in current ranges."
The U.S. Drought Monitor's latest map showed dry conditions in wheat-growing states, but with more moisture than reported earlier in the season.
New Sale: The USDA said private exporters made a new high-volume sale of soybean exports, with 334,000 metric tons sold for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2024-25 marketing year. Larger-than-usual amounts of flash sales were reported by the USDA in recent months, but slowed significantly. The last flash sale was reported over a week ago.
But soybean futures managed to stay close to flat for the day, while corn and wheat fell.
INSIGHT
Bountiful Crops: Brazilian agricultural agency Conab left its 2024-25 crop production outlook mostly unchanged, keeping pressure on CBOT grain futures amid a looming flood of Brazilian competition.
The agency estimates a total harvest of 322.4 million tons, 8.2% higher than the previous year.
Soybean production is expected at 166.21 million tons, 12.5% higher than the previous crop, and corn is seen at 119.63 million tons, 3.4% more than the previous harvest.
"The rains that have occurred so far are beneficial to crops in the main producing states," said Conab President Edegar Pretto in a note, maintaining an outlook for record-high production.
Truncated Period: Winter weather is in play for much of the U.S., but the expected transition into a La Niña climate system has yet to transpire, although the odds still favor an eventual transition, said NOAA in its latest news release via the Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA said that it gives La Niña a 59% chance to develop anytime between now and January 2025, then switching back to ENSO-neutral by March to May 2025.
A short-lived climate system means that any effects on U.S. crop health will likely be minimal ahead of the spring planting season.
The Big Picture: Tariff disputes and climate challenges look to be something growing areas around the world will have in common in 2025, said Rabobank's Carlos Mera.
U.S. tariffs targeting goods from China, Mexico and Canada under Trump's presidency threaten to squeeze margins for farmers globally, particularly those producing major grains and oilseeds, which have already seen price declines this year, Mera said.
AHEAD
-- The CFTC is scheduled to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. EST Monday.
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.
-- Giulia Petroni contributed to this article.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-12-24 1527ET
