By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for March delivery rose 3.3% to $4.71 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, after the USDA cut U.S. corn production and ending stocks more than expected by analysts.

--Soybeans for March delivery rose 2.8% to $10.27 a bushel.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.8% to $5.30 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Late Season Adjustments: CBOT grains rose sharply following the release of this month's WASDE report from the USDA. Demand outlooks from the USDA showed growth, this while supply outlooks were reduced due to weather issues hitting the late stages of the U.S. crop. The moves down were larger than expected by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, giving futures their fuel to climb. "USDA gave the market another shocking report," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note.

Set Aside: Amid preparation for the WASDE, traders generally glossed over the weekly export sales reported by the USDA today. The sales were weaker than forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. For the week ended Jan. 2, corn export sales totaled 445,000 metric tons in the 2024/25 marketing year -- which is below the low-end of analyst estimates. Soybean export sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 sales totaled 289,100 tons, while wheat sales totaled 111,300 tons, both also lower than estimates.


INSIGHT


Persistent Volatility: Grain futures have been under pressure on the belief supplies are plentiful globally, but today's WASDE report has traders reconsidering--especially for corn. "Given the U.S. corn stocks/use ratio is approaching the psychological 10% level, I'd expect markets to remain volatile through the spring and into early summer," said Jake Hanley of Teucrium Trading.

On the Other Hand: While the USDA cut its estimates for corn and soybean production, it also raised its estimate for 2024/25 U.S. cotton production to 14.41 million bales, from December's 14.26 million bales forecast. The agency raises its national all-cotton yield estimate by 44 pounds to 836 pounds per harvested acre, citing a larger crop and lower harvested area. U.S. ending stocks projection is raised to 4.8 million bales from 4.4 million bales. Cotton is a crop that has been losing acreage in recent years as farmers in the southern U.S. opt for more-profitable soybean crops.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-10-25 1529ET