It's a session of paradoxes: Germany is in a bad way, France in the midst of political uncertainty, but the euro is up +0.3% against the dollar and back above 1.0500 on the eve of the weekend, after a new test of the $1.046 floor this morning (and the euro is up +1% against the yen).

The $-Index is also showing strength, gaining +0.1% to 107.1 (+1% over the week): it is gaining ground against the Yen (-0.7% to 153.7), +0.4% against the Pound, and +0.1% against the Yuan (7.2665).
On the other hand, it is stagnating against the Swiss franc... which is down 0.3% against the euro.
The single currency seems to be weathering the political uncertainties and gloomy economic outlook in Germany (zero growth in Q4 2024 after 7 quarters of recession).
The 'Buba' (German Federal Bank) is sharply revising down its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
GDP expectations for 2025 are divided by more than 5 (from +1.1% in June to +0.2% in December) and for 2026, it is dividing its estimate almost by 2, from +1.4% +0.8%.

On the statistics front, US import prices rose by 0.1% in November compared with the previous month (stable excluding fuel), according to the Labor Department, while export prices stagnated (+0.1% excluding agricultural commodities).

In rolling 12-month variation, US import and export prices respectively rose by 1.3% (+2.3% excluding fuel) and 0.8% (+1.2% excluding agricultural commodities) last month.

In Europe, CVS industrial production remained stable in the eurozone and rose by 0.3% in the EU, according to Eurostat's first estimates.

In the eurozone, it rose by 1.7% for capital goods, remained stable for intermediate goods and fell by 1.9% for energy, by 1.8% for durable consumer goods and by 2.3% for non-durable consumer goods.
In September 2024, compared with August, industrial production had fallen by 1.5% in the eurozone and by 1.4% in the EU. Compared with the same month in 2023, it fell by 1.2% in the eurozone and 0.8% in the EU last October.

On the inflation front, consumer prices in France rose by 1.3% in November 2024, a slight acceleration after +1.2% in October, according to Insee, which thus confirms its provisional estimate for last month.

In Germany, the trade surplus fell by -20% in October to 13.4 billion euros in CVS terms, after reaching 16.9 billion euros in September, announced Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office.

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