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EU money supply; Germany GfK consumer climate survey; France consumer confidence survey; trading updates from Munich Re, Puma, Lagardere, Bouygues, Intesa Sanpaolo, ASM International, Smith & Nephew, abrdn, Croda International

Opening Call:

Stock futures were tracking lower early Tuesday. In Asia, stock benchmarks were mixed; Treasury yields slipped; the dollar weakened; while oil fell and gold gained.


European stock futures were lower early Tuesday mirroring U.S. stocks move lower yesterday ahead of fresh readings on the economy this week.

"We are encouraged by the stock-market rally so far this year, which is being driven in large part by better-than-expected earnings and excitement over artificial intelligence, which is helping to overshadow the market's fears that the [Federal Reserve's] rate cuts may be delayed due to persistent inflation," said Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.

This week includes the first revision to fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Wednesday and January's reading of the personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation metric, on Thursday.

If the PCE data surprises to the cooler side, investors may see a recalibration of the Fed's rate-cut expectations and traders could start pricing in a potential rate cut in May, LPL Financial said.

However, if the reading comes in hotter it may confirm that the "last mile" for the Fed to bring inflation down to its 2% goal is particularly challenging, it added.


The U.S. dollar is likely to weaken this year as inflation slows and the Fed starts to cut rates.

"The risk is the economy remains resilient, or inflation gets even stickier, keeping the Fed on hold, in which case the USD will remain strong," Bank of America's Athanasios Vamvakidis said, noting that recent data shows sticky inflation and resilient labor markets.

"The US elections makes the market outlook even more uncertain."


JPY strengthened against other G-10 and Asian currencies after Japan's January inflation quickened more than expected.

CPI is still above the BOJ's target and Japan's Spring wage negotiations are underway, with a Japanese Trade Union Confederation official saying they're pushing for a 5% wage hike, said Matt Simpson, market analyst at and City Index.

If such wage-increase figures become widespread across the domestic economy, this certainly builds the case for the BOJ to raise rates, Simpson adds.


Treasury yields were lower after the two-year rate rose to its highest level since November on Monday, ahead of this week's revised GDP and PCE inflation report.

"The market remains expectant about the final impact on PCE prices following hot January CPI and PPI inflation," said TD Securities.

"TD expects those robust increases to result in a solid 0.36% [month-over-month] jump for the core PCE. The PCE's supercore likely also surged but by an even stronger 0.55%."


Oil prices fell early Tuesday as traders continued to weigh the prospects for crude supply and demand.

"With inflation stubbornly hovering well above the Fed's 2% target and the U.S. economy showing a resilience few had predicted, the markets moved to price in a scenario where interest rates remain high for longer, " Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said.

"Against this background, economic activity is expected to be impacted, leading to lower forecasts for future oil demand," he said.


Gold edged higher in Asia but may be weighed by mostly higher Treasury yields which could reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing precious metal.

In view of the overnight uptick in Treasury yields, gold has fallen slightly, Sucden Financial said.

Continued upbeat data from the U.S. economy suggests that the Fed may not be in a hurry to conduct monetary easing, it added.


Nickel was lower early Tuesday. The base metal continued its selloff as supply in Indonesia shows no sign of abating, ANZ Research said.

Eramet, a French nickel producer, has warned that low-cost Indonesian nickel could wipe out rivals in the next few years, it added.


Iron ore futures fell amid higher steel inventory levels.

The market continues to move lower, as recent data from the China Iron and Steel Association show that steel inventories have increased sharply, Westpac analysts said.


Japan's Consumer Prices Grow at Slowest Pace in Nearly Two Years

TOKYO-Japan's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in nearly two years in January, but came in above expectations, backing views that the central bank will exit its negative interest rate policy, albeit cautiously.

Overall consumer prices rose 2.2% from a year earlier in January, mainly due to lower energy prices, government data showed Tuesday. That marked the slowest pace of growth since March 2022, and was down from the 2.6% increase seen in December but still above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target.

Bitcoin rallies to highest level since November 2021 as investors eye record high

Bitcoin on Monday rallied to its highest level since November 2021, as exchange-traded funds investing directly in the cryptocurrency attract more capital into the space, while investors await the upcoming "halving" event, which has historically been bullish for bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin BTCUSD rose 9.5% over the past 24 hours to nearly $57,000 at one point, according to CoinDesk data. It is roughly off 17% from its record high at $68,990, reached in November 2021.

Fed is 'not out of woods' on inflation, new regional bank president says

The battle against rising prices is not over, one of the newest top Federal Reserve officials said Monday.

"When it comes to too-high inflation, I believe we are not out of the woods yet," Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said in his first public speech since joining the central bank six months ago.

Bank of Ireland stock sinks as provisions for commercial real estate rise

Bank of Ireland became the latest to flag worries about commercial real estate as it announced higher provisions linked to the sector, and saw its shares tumble on Monday.

Alongside annual results, Bank of Ireland IE:BIRG reported that its underlying net credit impairment charge climbed to EUR403 million ($436 million) in 2023 from EUR187 million in 2022.

Biden Says Cease-Fire in Gaza Could Come as Early as This Weekend

President Biden said Monday that fighting in Gaza could stop as early as this coming weekend, the most detailed timeline to date from the White House on a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.

Traveling in New York City for a campaign event, the president responded to a question from a reporter about the negotiations and when a pause might begin. "I hope by the end of the weekend," Biden said.

As Israel Drives Out Hamas, Lawlessness Hampers Gaza Aid Efforts

TEL AVIV-Israel's drive to eliminate Hamas from power in Gaza is proving increasingly at odds with another objective it is under international pressure to pursue: ensuring delivery of humanitarian aid to Gazans struggling to find food and safety as the war in the south intensifies around them.

Blue-uniformed Gazan police vanished from the streets of southern Gaza earlier this month after as many as nine officers were killed in Israeli airstrikes, according to U.S. and United Nations officials.

Disney's Head of Live-Action Movies to Step Down

Sean Bailey, who has overseen live-action movies for Disney's namesake studio since 2010, will step down.

Disney said Monday that Bailey would be succeeded by David Greenbaum, former co-president of Disney's Searchlight Pictures. Greenbaum would take on the new role of president of Disney live action and 20th Century Studios.

Chevron's $53 Billion Deal for Hess in Jeopardy on Possible Exxon Challenge

Chevron warned investors Monday that Exxon Mobil and China's Cnooc are asserting they have a right to pre-empt the company's bid for a stake in a prolific oil project off Guyana, an emerging dispute that could derail Chevron's megadeal for Hess.

Chevron said in a regulatory filing that Exxon and Cnooc say they have the right to counter Chevron's offer for Hess's stake in the Guyana project, which Exxon operates and is one of the largest oil finds in years. Chevron warned investors it may not complete its purchase of Hess "within the time frame the company anticipates or at all."

Expedia to Reduce Workforce by 9% Amid Transformational Efforts

Expedia is reducing its global head count by 1,500 employees, or roughly 9%, as part of its organizational and technological transformation.

The online travel company on Monday said it expects to book pretax charges and cash expenditures of $80 million to $100 million as a result of the cuts.

Zoom's stock jumps 10% on strong results, guidance amid AI push

Zoom Video Communications Inc.'s stock surged in extended trading Monday, after the videoconferencing company topped expectations across the board with its financial results and forecasts. The company also authorized a $1.5 billion buyback.

Zoom ZM reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $298.8 million, or 95 cents cents a share, on revenue of $1.15 billion, up from $1.12 billion a year ago. After adjusting for stock compensation and other effects, Zoom reported earnings of $1.42 a share.

FTC Sues to Block $25 Billion Kroger-Albertsons Merger

The Federal Trade Commission on Monday sued to block Kroger's $25 billion bid for rival Albertsons, throwing into uncertainty the fate of the largest supermarket deal in history.

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02-27-24 0017ET