The ECB's widely-anticipated decision to cut rates was not a market mover for currency traders... on the other hand, Christine Lagarde's comments were eagerly awaited.

But the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference were a non-event.
This is why the Euro/Dollar parity fluctuated little: -0.1% to 1.0485, after testing the crucial 1.0465 floor.

The $-Index gained +0.1% to 106.80, and this small gap masked deep divergences within the reserve currencies: the Swiss franc fell -0.7% against the dollar and -0.6% against the euro... while the pound dropped -0.5% to 1.2680.
The Yen, on the other hand, ended unchanged and the Yuan fell by -0.1% against the $.

The ECB's press release contained no economic indications likely to surprise the market: the lowering of EU GDP growth forecasts for 2025 (to +0.7%) was expected, as it is well known that the economic and political situation in Germany and France is problematic.

The ECB estimates that while growth in Q3 reached +0.4% thanks to tourism (Olympic Games effect), it slowed sharply in early autumn (decline in industrial production, drop in job offers).
Christine Lagarde agrees that "growth is losing momentum" in Q4, and adds that "corporate margins are deteriorating": we'll have to wait until 2026 to see growth pick up to +1.4%, then 1.3% in 2027.

Inflation is forecast at +2.3% in 2025 (after +2.4% in 2024) and +1.9% in 2026 and 2027 (prices remaining high with the rise in wages observed in the zone.

The Fed is expected to follow the ECB's lead next Wednesday with a 25 basis point easing of its key rates, a scenario expected by 85% of investors.

Apart from the ECB's announcements, investors were also treated to US producer price and jobless claims figures.
The Labor Department reports that US producer prices rose by 0.4% in November compared with the previous month, and by 0.1% excluding food, energy and commercial services.
Expressed as an annual variation, the rise in US producer prices accelerated last month compared with October by 0.4 points to 3% unadjusted, but held steady at 3.5% excluding food, energy and commercial services.

The Labor Department announced that 242.000 new jobless claims in the US in the week to December 2, up 17,000 on the previous week.
The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came in at 224,250, up 5,750 on the previous week.

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