Block 1: Essential news

Bitwise Asset Management's 10 predictions for the crypto market in 2025:

  • Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana will reach new all-time highs, with bitcoin surpassing $200,000.
  • Bitcoin ETFs will attract more capital in 2025 than in 2024.
  • Coinbase will overtake Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage firm, with its share price exceeding $700.
  • 2025 will be the year of the cryptocurrency IPO, with at least five industry unicorns going public in the US.
  • Tokens created by AI agents will trigger even greater memecoin speculation than in 2024.
  • The number of countries holding bitcoin will double.
  • Coinbase will join the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq-100, incorporating cryptocurrency exposure into almost every US investor's portfolio.
  • The US Department of Labor will ease its restrictions on cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans, unlocking billions of dollars in new investments.
  • Stablecoin assets are set to double to $400 billion, driven by the US passage of long-awaited stablecoin legislation.
  • The value of real-world tokenized assets (RWAs) will exceed $50 billion.

Can you believe it?

Microsoft doesn't want bitcoins

Microsoft shareholders have voted against a proposal to allocate 1% of the company's assets, or around $78.4 billion, to bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. The proposal, put forward by the National Center for Public Policy Research, was supported by a brief presentation from MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor, who argued that "Microsoft had missed out on $200 billion in potential capital by prioritizing dividends and share buybacks over bitcoin". Despite this, Microsoft's board of directors opposed the idea, citing bitcoin's volatility and emphasizing its preference for stable investments. Following this decision, Microsoft shares remained stable at $446, while the bitcoin price fell by 4% to $95,700.

Salvador VS IMF

El Salvador plans to amend its bitcoin law to make merchant acceptance of BTC optional, rather than mandatory, as part of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure a $1.3 billion loan. Additional loans of $2 billion from the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank are expected, for a total of $3.3 billion. The IMF has criticized El Salvador's bitcoin strategy, citing financial stability issues, and has imposed conditions including a reduction in the budget deficit and anti-corruption measures. Although bitcoin has been legal tender since 2021, adoption remains low, with 88% of Salvadorans not using it in 2023.

Goldman Sachs: Crypto trading coming soon?

Goldman Sachs could enter the bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) trading business, according to CEO David Solomon, who says he is open to the possibility if regulatory conditions evolve. This reflection comes at a time when Donald Trump's arrival in power is seen as a signal of favorable changes for cryptocurrencies. Although the institution remains cautious, describing the assets as speculative, it recognizes their appeal to investors. Already involved in the sector via Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ($718 million invested), Goldman Sachs is also exploring tokenization via its in-house blockchain platform.

Block 2: Crypto Analysis of the week

In 2015, Johan Wattenstrom's XBT Provider launched the world's first bitcoin ETP (Exchange-Treded Product) on Nasdaq Stockholm (later acquired by CoinShares). A time when bitcoin was still trading at under $500 each. Almost 10 years later, US Bitcoin ETFs are making headlines having accumulated over $107 billion in bitcoins, or 5.65% of BTC in circulation. But in the crypto sphere, the Old Continent dominates Uncle Sam in one respect: Europe has quietly established itself as the undisputed leader in the number of exchange-traded products (ETPs) for digital assets.

As a reminder, an ETP (Exchange-Traded Product) is an exchange-listed financial instrument that tracks the performance of an asset or basket of assets, such as an index, commodity or currency. ETPs include several types of product, such as ETFs (exchange-traded funds), ETNs (exchange-traded notes) and ETCs (commodity certificates), each with specific characteristics in terms of structure and risk.

Today, Europe boasts over 221 listed crypto ETPs with total assets under management of $19.86 billion. Issuers such as CoinShares, Valour, and 21Shares have expanded beyond bitcoin and ether, introducing products linked to altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies to bitcoin), staking-based ETPs, and even memecoins. More than 50% of the world's crypto ETPs are listed on European exchanges, according to Morningstar data.

Europe hosts over 50% of crypto ETPs
Morningstar

According to data from DeFi Technologies, bitcoin and ether account for 65% of total assets under management (AUM). Solana accounts for 12.30% of AUM and 7.16% held by diversified crypto baskets.

Main cryptos held in European-domiciled ETPs
Etfbook

Bitcoin's new record high of over $100,000 has rekindled interest in crypto-assets and the listed financial instruments that provide exposure to them in Europe. In fact, ETPs saw exceptional inflows last week, reaching 290 million euros, according to Trackinsight data, following flows of 120 million euros the previous week. This is the highest level of inflows since the beginning of the year.

Despite this increase, European flows remain modest compared to those in the United States, where the first crypto ETFs were only launched at the beginning of 2024. Trackinsight reports that global flows reached €4 billion over the same period, over 90% of which came from the USA. Products based on bitcoin largely dominate these flows, capturing around 2.5 billion euros, followed by those linked to ether, which attracted 1.3 billion euros.

Block 3: Gainers & Losers

Cryptocurrency charts
(Click to enlarge)

MarketScreener

Block 4: This week's readings

Blockchain innovation will put an AI-powered Internet back in the hands of users (Wired)

A kid made $50,000 selling a crypto he'd created. Then came the backlash (Wired)