OPEC Further Trims Oil-Demand Forecast After Output-Hike Delay -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 1.1% at $72.97 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 2.2% at 44.57 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are up 0.5% at $2,733 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.3% at $9,206 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

OPEC Further Trims Oil-Demand Forecast After Output-Hike Delay

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil-demand growth for the fifth consecutive month after further postponing plans to increase output amid softer prices and market concerns over weaker global consumption.

The Vienna-based cartel now expects demand to grow by 1.61 million barrels a day this year and 1.45 million barrels a day next year, from previous estimates of 1.82 million and 1.54 million barrels a day, respectively. Estimates are roughly 28% and 22% lower compared to July.

The trim mainly reflects bearish data for the third quarter, but the group's overall forecast remains significantly more optimistic than others in the industry, as growth is still seen above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels a day before the pandemic.

Total world demand is estimated to reach around 103.8 million barrels a day and 105.3 million barrels a day on average in the respective periods.

OTHER STORIES:

Exxon Mobil Targets 10% Annual Earnings Growth Through 2030

Exxon Mobil said it plans to grow its earnings at a compound annual growth rate of 10% and boost spending on capital projects through 2030.

The biggest U.S. oil company laid out an extensive six-year strategic plan on Wednesday that targets an additional $20 billion in potential earnings growth and $30 billion in cash flow potential.

The Spring, Texas, company said it also aims to unlock an additional $7 billion in structural cost savings through 2030 by simplifying its business processes, optimizing supply chains and modernizing its information-technology and data-management systems.

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Vestas to Cut Jobs at U.K. Factory

Vestas Wind Systems could cut hundreds of jobs at its Isle of Wight factory in the U.K. as it plans to repurpose the site to manufacture onshore turbine blades.

The factory currently manufactures offshore blades for an older turbine and the site isn't suitable to produce the next generation of offshore blades, the Danish wind turbine maker said Wednesday.

However, following an agreement in principle with the U.K. government, Vestas said it intends to use the factory to build onshore blades to mainly serve the U.K. market.

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Developer TECO 2030 Files for Bankruptcy

TECO 2030, a Norwegian clean-tech company developing hydrogen fuel cells for maritime and heavy industry use, has filed for bankruptcy.

The company said late Tuesday that it made the decision as there is no longer a realistic opportunity to raise sufficient capital to continue operations.

MARKET TALKS:

Crude Futures Maintain Upward Momentum -- Market Talk

0903 ET - Oil futures gain for a third consecutive session, supported by optimism that more aggressive stimulus efforts in China could support demand, Middle East risk premium, and a U.S. inflation reading that's likely to keep up expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. A report that the Biden administration is considering a tightening of Russia oil sanctions is contributing to momentum, while the cut in OPEC's 2025 oil demand growth estimate to 1.45 million barrels a day from 1.54 million b/d contained few surprises, Ritterbusch says in a note. WTI is up 1.3% at $69.47 a barrel, and Brent is 1.1% higher at $73.00 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Rise As Temperatures Fall -- Market Talk

0839 ET - U.S. natural gas prices are higher as a cold shot sweeps across the Midwest toward the Northeast. The rise in heating demand this week is expected to be followed by a sharp drop into next week, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a report. "The steep demand gradient could swing physical pricing across the country, offering potential knock-on effects for Nymex futures." The market is rebalancing after the November price spike and subsequent retreat, with the Nymex front month repeatedly finding support near $3/mmBtu as bulls protect a soft price floor, he adds. The January contract is up 3.8% at $3.283/mmBtu. ([e-mail])

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Metal Prices Fall; Short-Term Rallies Unlikely Given Tariff Concerns -- Market Talk

1143 GMT - Metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.5% at $9,186.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum falls 0.9% to $2,591 a ton. In the short-term, base metals are likely to trade sideways given tariff risks, MUFG analysts say in a note. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he will impose tariffs on Chinese goods and imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as any countries that attempt to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. This has damped near-term enthusiasm for industrial metals, as demand is likely to be hit and the dollar has gained, making it more expensive for international buyers of dollar-denominated commodities. Further ahead however, the mood should turn more bullish on Chinese stimulus and structural green transition demand, MUFG adds. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower Amid High Stockpiles -- Market Talk

1022 GMT - Palm oil prices ended lower amid high stockpiles. Selling pressure for crude palm oil intensified after Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed a smaller-than-expected decline in stockpiles in November, Phillip Nova analyst Lim Tai An says in a research note. The losses overnight in soybean oil futures and weaker Dalian palm olein futures also weighed on palm oil prices, Lim adds. Hong Leong Investment Bank says palm oil stock levels will likely decline further in December, as weaker exports will be offset by a seasonally lower cropping pattern. Despite the session's weakness, Hong Leong thinks CPO prices will remain elevated, possibly until 1Q, supported by weak near-term output. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery fell 96 ringgit to 4,855 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Oil Prices Edge Higher on China Stimulus Hopes -- Market Talk

0914 GMT - Crude prices edge higher in early European trade but continue to trade in a tight range amid hopes of a recovery in Chinese demand and a Bloomberg report saying that the U.S. is mulling harsher sanctions against Russia's oil trade. Brent is up 0.4% at $72.51 a barrel, while WTI rises 0.5% to $68.93 a barrel. China's pledge to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth sent a positive signal to the market, with investors now waiting to see more concrete details. Meanwhile, the China National Petroleum Corporation released a report stating that China's oil demand might peak in 2025, five years earlier than expected. Focus is now on monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision next week. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Rise as Markets Await U.S. CPI Data -- Market Talk

0908 GMT - Gold futures rise 0.3% to $2,725.60 a troy ounce ahead of the release of key U.S. economic data. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of Wednesday's release of Consumer Price Index data, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. The numbers are expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's decision on an interest-rate cut for December, ANZ says. While the market is pricing in around 90% chance of a rate cut, any signs from the CPI data that shake that belief could be a headwind for non-interest bearing bullion. The precious metal's prices are also being buoyed by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and China's central bank's resumption of gold purchases after a six-month hiatus, ANZ adds. ([e-mail])

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Crude Palm Oil Prices Could Remain High on Weaker Production -- Market Talk

0737 GMT - Crude palm oil prices could stay above 5,000 ringgit/ton in the coming months amid a low production cycle, Apex Securities analyst Steven Chong writes in a note. He notes that November CPO production was 9.8% lower on month. Weaker production is likely due to wet weather, which complicated harvesting, Chong says. Going forward, he expects CPO production to remain tepid due to wet weather and floods. Apex Securities maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's plantation sector. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery was recently at 4,926 ringgit/ton.([e-mail])

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Comex Gold Futures Resuming Bullish Trajectory, Chart Shows -- Market Talk

0719 GMT - Comex gold futures are resuming a bullish trajectory, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. After futures closed above the 50-day simple moving average Tuesday, gold bulls are currently leading the rally, Chai says. Also, the relative strength index indicator continues to point higher, which implies bullish momentum is accelerating, he says. Given the shift in momentum favoring bulls, Comex gold futures could sustain the uptrend in the coming session, with initial resistance pegged at $2,800/oz, he adds. Spot gold is little changed at $2,693.68/oz. ([e-mail])

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Crude Palm-Oil Prices Likely to Be Well-Supported in Short-Term -- Market Talk

0659 GMT - Crude palm-oil prices are expected to be well-supported for the next quarter or two, Kenanga IB analyst Khoo Teng Chuan writes in a note. Palm-oil supply this year looks set to drop by around 2% on year as drier weather has pulled down yields in Indonesia, the analyst says. There is also likely to be robust demand in the nearer-term due to factors including the Ramadan period in 1Q next year, the analyst adds. Kenanga has an overweight rating on Malaysia's plantation sector. ([e-mail])

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A Stronger Dollar Unlikely to Diminish Gold's Bullish Outlook -- Market Talk

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12-11-24 0932ET