Futures were moving lower, but some of the steeper losses amid aggressive selling have started to calm.

At the low point Tuesday, oil futures were off over $2 and diesel was off by double-digits. Since the lows, the losses have been cut by close to half and RBOB is making a case to move into positive territory.

At the low point, front-month West Texas Intermediate, which expires Tuesday, was trading at $75.49 with Brent trading as low as $78.45 earlier. The losses so far in Brent are a bit lighter, but ICE was open Monday and March Brent settled at $80.15/bbl, down 64cts on the day.

A ceasefire between Hamas and Isreal that is being honored by the Houthis has put some pressure on oil as ships in the Red Sea are no longer going to be targeted, taking some of the geopolitical premium out of the market.

The promise President Donald Trump made to increase oil production may also be putting a bit of downward pressure on the market.

February WTI was down $1.20 at $76.68/bbl but volumes are razor thin with expiration coming in a few hours. The more-active March contract was off by $1.36, trading at $76.03/bbl, about $1 higher than the lows seen earlier Tuesday.

Refined products were down, with the diesel contract substantially lower.

Forecasts for the next two weeks see a return to normal and above-normal temperatures east of the Rockies. That pulled the rug out from under ULSD as February at one point was down about 10.5cts, but was last trading at $2.5734/gal, down 4.76cts. The March contract is more active and has been for the past several days. That contract was down some 10cts at the low point and at last glance was down just over 5.5cts at $2.5051/gal.

February and March RBOB futures were off about a cent as February most recently traded at $2.1028/gal and March at $2.1345/gal.

While the RBOB contract is holding up relatively well compared to the rest of the complex, it has been lagging the rest of the market through the first two weeks of 2025. While RBOB has been lagging, data from the CME show that total open interest in RBOB through Jan. 17 was down just once as it appears that plenty of capital is flowing into RBOB futures.

Although it hasn't had much of a reported impact so far, market watchers are keeping an eye on winter storms that are packing cold weather and snow on the Gulf Coast.


This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.


-- Reporting by Denton Cinquegrana, dcinquegrana@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-21-25 1258ET