By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for July delivery rose 1.2% to $6.13 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, climbing as traders added war-related risk premium back into grain futures.

--Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.7% to $11.90 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for July delivery rose 0.4% to $4.62 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Turning Up the Tension: Grain futures rose Tuesday in reaction to tensions around the U.S.-Iran war - with Vice President J.D. Vance delaying his trip to Pakistan as Iran has also yet to send its delegates. The continued hostilities with Iran mean the supply of fertilizer that would be destined for global importers remains strained--a potential issue for crop yields of corn and soybeans being planted this month and next.

On Par: In its latest Crop Progress report, the USDA said planting of corn is on pace with last year's record-sized crop, with 11% of the crop planted as of April 19. Soybeans are actually ahead of last year's pace, with 12% of the crop planted--up from 7% at this time last year. "The trend of planting soybeans as early as possible continues to be evident across the country," said Michael Cordonnier of Soybean & Corn Advisor in a note, adding that planting in the eastern Corn Belt states is slow as excessive rainfall keeps farmers out of their fields.

Macro Level: Bonds sold off, bumping yields higher, as Kevin Warsh made the case for Fed reform while a new round of U.S.-Iran peace talks remain uncertain. In a two-hour Senate hearing, the Fed chair nominee avoided discussing Trump's economic policies and pledged commitment to central bank independence. He proposed less Fed communication with the press and a smaller balance sheet. Tehran is yet to decide on sending negotiators to Pakistan to meet with U.S. officials.


INSIGHT


Ripple Effect: If peace talks in Pakistan don't get held, then there may be repercussions. One is that a scheduled mid-May summit between the U.S. and China could get pushed back again if there's no peace deal, said AgResource in a note. "By mid-May, China will have exported most of its 12 million metric tons of late 2025 soybean purchases, and a deep lull will occur in the U.S. soybean trade amid the cheapness of South American FOB offers," said the firm.

Higher Estimates: Brazilian crop agency Conab raises its outlook for 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans to 179.2 million metric tons, an uptick of 1.4 million tons. Conab also raised its corn estimate by 1.3 million tons, to 139.5 million tons. The outlook for Brazil remains strong, suggesting that competition on the world export market remains stiff for U.S. grains. "Harvest is now about 92% complete, but wet weather has slowed final fieldwork in Rio Grande do Sul and kept yield variability elevated there," said Joe Davis of Future International in a note.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Livestock Slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.


Paulo Trevisani contributed to this article.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-21-26 1502ET