|
|
| This week's gainers and losers |
| Up: Venture Global +28.79%: Soaring gas prices and the halt in Qatari production are boosting the American LNG exporter, which has unveiled exceptional results for 2025 and is positioning itself to fill 20% of the global supply shortfall. AST Spacemobile +12.99%: The company specializing in satellite design and manufacturing surges following an agreement with giant Telus that secures deployment in Canada. The stock was also buoyed by renewed optimism from financial analysts, notably Deutsche Bank. Crowdstrike +15.33%: The cybersecurity company is making progress following financial results that reassure the market and solid forecasts for 2027. This momentum is reinforced by a strategic partnership with Schwarz Digits, opening the doors to regulated European markets. Harbour Energy +13.89%: Record production and a new redistribution policy that could return up to 75% of cash flow are boosting the British oil producer, which is raising its production forecasts for 2026 amid sustained oil prices. Down:MongoDB -17.66%: The sharp slowdown in growth of Atlas, the cloud platform that accounts for three-quarters of revenue, is weighing on the database specialist. Reckitt -14.31%: The group is down following a cautious outlook for the start of 2026. The hygiene giant is suffering from a weaker-than-expected virus season and a difficult business environment in Europe, weighing on its short-term sales volumes. Ciena -15.64%: The group specializing in optical networks has posted strong results. But, much like Nvidia and all other players closely or remotely linked to AI, the market expects breathtaking figures. It must be said that investors have high expectations: +47% since January 1 for Ciena (before the fall), while the Nasdaq 100 lost 1%. Ford -13.77%: The collapse in electric vehicle sales and massive recalls of more than 2 million units due to technical defects are weighing heavily on the American manufacturer. Total sales declined in February despite the resilience of combustion engine models. |
|
| Commodities |
Energy: The blockade of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy transport, has sent crude oil prices soaring. At $90 for Brent and $87.70 for WTI, prices are returning to levels last seen in April 2024. The weekly increase is around 24%. Faced with this surge in prices, the Trump administration is attempting to calm the market. Washington has promised to ensure the safety of ships via naval escorts and is considering drawing on its strategic oil reserves. In addition, the United States has granted exemptions allowing the purchase of Russian oil stored on ships, particularly for India. This measure aims to free up floating stocks in the Asian region to ease pressure on supply. In this regard, the big winner in this crisis remains Russia. In addition, Saudi Arabia is reorganizing the transport of part of its production to the Red Sea to avoid blockages in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, oil prices continue to rise. Insurers are canceling coverage for ships crossing the conflict zone, and it is likely that military escorts will take time to put in place. Until flows resume normally via the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium will continue to support high prices. Metals: Aluminum has surpassed the USD 3,400 mark in London, driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East. Over the week, prices are heading for a rise of more than 5%. With the closure of a smelter in Qatar and the halt of shipments from Bahrain, prices are reacting sharply to the upside, especially as stocks are at their lowest level since 2023. Conversely, copper is falling, weighed down by a rapid accumulation of stocks that signals a short-term supply surplus. Copper is trading at around $12,900 per tonne (cash price) on the LME. On the precious metals front, gold is navigating troubled waters, hovering around $5,080 per ounce. On the one hand, military escalation in the Middle East is supporting demand for gold, which is considered a safe haven in times of uncertainty. But on the other hand, the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields are weighing on the precious metal, which does not generate a return. In addition, rising oil prices are fueling inflation fears, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep rates high for longer. Agricultural products: Agricultural markets are showing mixed trends this week. Soybeans continue to rise, supported by higher oil prices (a growing share of crops is used to produce biofuels), while wheat remains under pressure due to abundant global supply. Wheat is trading slightly higher at around 590 cents (May 2026 contract). |
|
| Macroeconomics |
| Macro: Enough already! Between macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, investors don't know which way to turn. While the US economy still appears to be expanding, uncertainties have suddenly mounted. The Israeli-American military intervention in Iran is destabilizing the oil market. If the situation drags on, it will have consequences not only for inflation but also for the timing of future rate cuts - if they still happen - and, by extension, for stock market performance. Unfortunately, Friday's jobs report was worse than expected: the US economy shed 92,000 jobs, compared with an anticipated 58,000, further accentuating the decline in stock indices. Crypto: Despite a context that is not very encouraging for risky assets, Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering this week. After six consecutive weeks of decline, Bitcoin has rebounded 4% since Monday and is back around $68,500. The rise was particularly noticeable at the beginning of the week, with BTC gaining 12% over the first three days before falling back on Thursday and Friday. Spot Bitcoin ETFs led the way, with more than $1.1 billion in net inflows recorded between Monday and Wednesday. Although there have been advances in the US legislative framework in favor of the cryptosphere, notably with Donald Trump's call for the rapid adoption of the Clarity Act to strengthen US dominance in the cryptocurrency sector, the rise seems mainly linked to a rebound after a long period of turmoil for the crypto market. In the space of six weeks, the value of bitcoin had lost nearly $30,000, falling from $93,000 to $63,000. This correction led to bargain hunting, allowing bitcoin to stabilize somewhat. It remains to be seen whether this movement will continue. We will find out next week. |
|
|
| Things to read this week | ||||||
|
|
*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
