The selloff in heavyweight technology shares says less about any one earnings report and more about a market suddenly questioning its own convictions. The past year has conditioned investors to believe that innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, can outrun most fundamentals. But stretched valuations have the nasty habit of snapping back without notice. A touch of reality, however unwelcome, is arguably healthy.

Will the Fed cut rates in December? The camp of those who say ‘no' has grown dramatically over the last 48 hours. So much so that on the CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks market sentiment based on futures contracts, the probability of a rate cut has fallen from 70% to 52.1% in a week. This view is not yet in the majority, but it has never been so close to being so. A month ago, the probability of no rate cut was only 5.5% and the Trump camp was even pushing for a double monetary easing (i.e. a 50 basis point move instead of the usual 25 basis point increments).

The Federal Reserve is hardly helping restore calm. Policymakers have adopted a tone best described as "optimistic caution with a side of doubt." St. Louis's Alberto Musalem warns of the need for prudence. Cleveland's Beth Hammack insists that keeping policy restrictive is still useful. Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari regrets last month's cut. ­The only clear consensus is that there is no consensus. As a result, investors are toggling between hope and gloom at a frequency that would concern an electrician.

Complicating matters is the shutdown-induced data drought. Some economic indicators that weren't published during the shutdown may never arrive. 

Meanwhile, geopolitical jitters continue to rattle commodity markets. A Ukrainian drone strike on a major Russian export hub briefly sent oil prices upward, reminding traders that even a well-supplied market can be jolted by events far from trading desks. Gold, the world's oldest anxiety hedge, has been enjoying its moment accordingly.

Elsewhere, Britain managed to inject its own discomfort into global sentiment. News that the government may abandon its income-tax increase, fearing political backlash, has undermined confidence in its commitment to fiscal repair. Sterling promptly wilted. Investors have become skilled at reading the signals of fiscal credibility, and this one was not encouraging.

In the coming weeks, attention will turn to corporate earnings, fresh geopolitical developments, and any scrap of data capable of filling the current vacuum. The irony, of course, is that markets are more likely to stabilise not when good news arrives, but when the flow of information becomes predictable again.

Friday's session presents significant challenges for investors, because a bad day would see the Nasdaq 100 post a loss of more than 5% from its recent peaks, which could amplify the consolidation. In this regard, market prophecies are sometimes self-fulfilling.

Returning to the short term, China announced overnight that retail sales were stronger than expected in October, but industrial production was disappointing. The Chinese economy is still struggling to recover, especially as the property market remains a dead weight for Beijing, as a senior official admitted a few hours ago. 

In Asia-Pacific, all indices ended the week down after the sharp decline in US equities. South Korea paid a heavy price (-3.8% for the KOSPI) due to its overexposure to a few big names in technology, which were severely hit on Friday. Leading indicators are still bearish in Europe.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: industrial production and retail sales in Switzerland; the EU harmonized CPI in France; the trade balance in the eurozone; in the United States, the final demand PPI, advance retail sales, and business inventories. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,917
  • Gold: $4,105
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.86 (WTI) $59.64
  • United States 10 years: 4.12%
  • BITCOIN: $97,005

In corporate news:

  • Blackstone appointed Franck Petitgas as Vice Chairman of Europe starting January 2026, following his 30-year tenure at Morgan Stanley.
  • Alphabet's Google submitted proposed changes to its ad tech business to address a $3.4 billion EU antitrust fine, avoiding a breakup by offering more flexible pricing and interoperability for publishers and advertisers.
  • Nexus Select Trust, backed by Blackstone, plans to double its Indian shopping mall portfolio to 30–35 centers in five years, targeting smaller cities and funding the expansion mainly through debt.
  • Verizon plans to cut around 15,000 jobs in a major restructuring effort as it seeks to reverse customer losses and cut costs.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery is reportedly fielding bids from Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix as part of an ongoing auction expected to close by year-end.
  • Amazon and Microsoft backed legislation that would restrict Nvidia's ability to export chips to China, aiming to prioritize U.S. access to advanced AI hardware.
  • Country Garden announced plans to reduce its debt by over $11 billion through the issuance of convertible bonds and warrants.
  • Applied Materials reported a year-over-year decline in Q4 earnings and revenue but forecast a modest rebound in Q1 despite concerns over future China sales due to U.S. export controls.
  • Under Armour is discontinuing its Curry Brand partnership with Stephen Curry as part of broader restructuring.
  • JBS posted a 13% revenue jump to $22.6 billion in Q3, driven by strong performance across all segments including North American beef and global poultry.
  • Canadian Pacific Kansas City reached a tentative five-year agreement with its U.S. engineer union, providing wage increases and more flexible hours.
  • Boeing workers approved a new five-year contract, ending a 101-day strike that had disrupted military aircraft production.
  • Blue Origin successfully launched two satellites for NASA and UC Berkeley, marking its first Mars mission.
  • BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners and ACS formed a $2.3 billion joint venture to develop data centers across Europe, the U.S., and Australia.
  • Rocket Lab also launched two spacecraft for NASA and UC Berkeley, scheduled to reach Mars in 2027.
  • PayPal-backed Pine Labs surged 28% on its India stock debut, raising $438 million to support debt repayment and expansion.
  • Alibaba introduced "AI Mode" for Alibaba.com and plans to integrate tokenization in cross-border payments via a partnership with JPMorgan Chase.
  • Apple saw a 22% jump in iPhone sales in China in the month following the iPhone 17 launch, reversing a prior year's decline.
  • JD.com shares fell after Q3 profits were hit by losses from its new food delivery ventures despite 15% revenue growth.
  • Pfizer sold a 54.7% stake in BioNTech SE and completed the acquisition of Metsera for over $10 billion.
  • Firmus, backed by Nvidia, raised $500 million to expand AI infrastructure projects in Australia under Project Southgate.
  • Merck is nearing a deal to acquire Cidara Therapeutics, valuing the firm above its $3.3 billion market cap, amid interest in its flu treatment pipeline.
  • CyberArk shareholders approved the company's acquisition by Palo Alto Networks.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Applied Materials, Inc.: Fubon Securities upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 190 to USD 260.
  • Circle Internet Group, Inc.: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral with a target price of USD 110.
  • Mp Materials Corp.: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 75 to USD 74.
  • Progressive Corporation: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 261 to USD 232.
  • Sempra: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 88 to USD 106.
  • The Gap, Inc.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 22 to USD 30.
  • The Home Depot, Inc.: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of USD 370.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 130 to USD 100.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: DBS Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 149 to USD 300.
  • Natera, Inc.: Raymond James maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 188 to USD 245.