Retail sales are slipping. Tech stocks are wobbling. HP Inc. is laying off thousands, and even holiday shoppers appear divided between splurgers and scrimpers. Yet markets are celebrating. Why? Because to investors, soft data now means something delicious: the promise of cheaper money.

The current narrative on Wall Street is built on hope. Specifically, hope that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as December. After months of anxiety about inflation and overheated growth, signs of economic cooling are now being welcomed like a long-lost friend. Add in the rumored elevation of Kevin Hassett, a Trump-aligned economist with dovish leanings, to the Fed's top job, and investors are practically pricing in a rate-cut Santa Claus.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there's now an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month. That figure has doubled in the span of a week. It's a stunning swing in sentiment: one that says more about investor fatigue than fiscal fundamentals.

However, this morning's jobless claims may give the Fed reason to pause. New claims for unemployment benefits came in at 216,000 for the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The figure suggests the labor market remains more resilient than markets would prefer if they're to get their rate cut under the tree. While not strong enough to dash all hopes, it muddies the narrative that the economy is softening quickly enough to demand immediate action.

The market, however, is still skating on thin macroeconomic ice. Durable goods orders and the Fed's Beige Book will further color the outlook, but the data now tells a more complicated story than the simple "cut rates now" mantra would suggest.

Meanwhile, the market's mood has been distinctly uneven. Dell, boosted by robust demand for its AI-focused servers, surged after lifting its full-year outlook. In contrast, HP inc. warned of weaker earnings and revealed plans to cut up to 10% of its workforce, sending its shares tumbling. Autodesk surged 7.5% thanks to a surprisingly strong forecast, while Workday disappointed despite hiking guidance.

Over in AI land, not even the machines can escape human-style mood swings. Nvidia, once the face of the AI gold rush, is under pressure, partly due to renewed competition from Alphabet and Meta, who are forming ever-closer partnerships in the race for artificial intelligence dominance. Alphabet's stock, now sniffing around a $4 trillion valuation, has become the shiny new hope for AI investors. 

In geopolitics, a U.S.-drafted peace deal between Ukraine and Russia may be inching forward, which is pushing down oil prices as traders anticipate the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude. But Russia's stance remains unclear: and few would bet the farm on peace holding. 

Investors are daring to dream, even as data delivers a mixed bag. This could be the beginning of a new cycle; or the last calm before turbulence returns. For now, markets are treating uncertainty not as a threat, but as an invitation to hope. 

In Asia-Pacific, Japan enjoyed a sharp rebound, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 1.8%. South Korea fared even better, with a 2.7% rise in the KOSPI. India and Australia both advanced 0.9%. Gains were more subdued in China, especially in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng was up 0.3% at the halfway mark. Europe is higher today and so are U.S. futures.

A timely reminder: US markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving.

Today's economic highlights:

On the agenda today: in the United States, durable goods orders, annualized GDP, new unemployment claims, wholesale inventories, MNI Chicago PMI, core PCE price index month-on-month and year-on-year, new home sales, personal income, consumer spending, and DOE crude oil inventories. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,909
  • Gold: $4,160
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $61.73 (WTI) $57.84
  • United States 10 years: 3.99%
  • BITCOIN: $87,001

In corporate news:

  • Meta is facing an expanded antitrust probe in Italy over alleged abuse of dominance by integrating AI tools into WhatsApp, which regulators fear could harm competition in the AI chatbot market.
  • Tesla is struggling with steep sales declines in Europe and China, down 48.5% and 8.4% respectively in October, as rivals gain ground with broader and cheaper EV offerings.
  • Hillhouse Investment is launching a new $7 billion private equity fund amid a revival in Asian deal activity, testing investor interest in its global ambitions.
  • Robinhood and Susquehanna are acquiring 90% of prediction market exchange LedgerX to expand into event-driven trading, aiming to capitalize on renewed U.S. interest in prediction markets.
  • The FAA is investigating Amazon after a delivery drone damaged an internet cable in Texas, the latest in a string of safety incidents involving its MK30 drones.
  • OpenAI projects 220 million weekly paying subscribers to ChatGPT by 2030, highlighting subscription business potential.
  • Boeing has secured a $2.47 billion contract to supply 15 more KC-46A tankers to the U.S. Air Force, adding to the 98 already delivered.
  • Workday shares fell nearly 7% after it posted in-line quarterly subscription revenue and a tepid forecast, reflecting weak demand in higher education sectors.
  • Dell raised its full-year forecast and expects up to $32 billion in Q4 revenue, driven by booming demand for AI servers and strong customer orders from clients like xAI and G42.
  • Warner Bros Discovery has requested improved acquisition bids by December 1 from suitors including Netflix, Paramount Skydance, and Comcast, potentially leading to exclusive deal talks.
  • Venture Global accuses Shell of a three-year campaign to sabotage its LNG operations.
  • Bill Ackman plans a $5 billion IPO for Pershing Square's closed-end fund.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Amentum Holdings, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to market weight from underweight and raises the target price from USD 20 to USD 35.
  • Autodesk, Inc.: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 345 to USD 375.
  • Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.: Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 128 to USD 165.
  • Intuit Inc.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to buy from outperform with a price target raised from USD 770 to USD 800.
  • Zscaler, Inc.: Capital One Securities upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 289 to USD 320.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 78 to USD 95.
  • Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 100 to USD 73.
  • Nuscale Power Corporation: BNP Paribas maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 25 to USD 15.
  • Nutanix, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 95 to USD 65.
  • Pinterest, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 41 to USD 32.
  • Venture Global, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 16 to USD 10.