The Paris stock exchange ended the final session of the week flat (7,982 points, +0.02%), buoyed by Capgemini (+3.5%) and Pernod Ricard (+3%) but held back by the defense sector, with Thales down 3.8% and Safran sliding 3.6%. The declines came as Donald Trump, the recently re-elected 47th President of the United States, outlined a tentative peace plan for Ukraine. Over the past week, the Paris index has dropped 2.3%.
While markets had begun to discount the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, John Williams, the influential president of the New York Fed, a self-described "dove" and voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, revived hopes by stating that "the Fed could still lower its interest rates 'in the short term' without compromising its inflation target." This stance contrasted with recent comments from other colleagues casting doubt on a third monetary easing in December.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a rate cut have rebounded from 35% to a 70% probability within four weeks.
Reactions on Wall Street remain muted: the S&P 500 is up 0.4%, ahead of the Nasdaq (+0.2%).
The VIX, the CBOE volatility index known as the "fear gauge," which experienced 36% intraday volatility on Thursday, slipped 2.2% but remains elevated at around 25.8.
After more than six months of nearly uninterrupted gains, volatility appears to be making a comeback in the markets and could become the norm through year-end.
This renewed nervousness primarily highlights investors' lack of confidence in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, which until now had seemed a given.
Yesterday's U.S. jobs report, which far exceeded expectations, prompted investors to reconsider the likelihood of another rate reduction next month.
The morning in Europe was marked by the release of the first results from S&P Global's monthly PMI surveys of European private sector purchasing managers.
The HCOB flash composite PMI for overall activity in the eurozone stood at 52.4 in November, edging down slightly from October's 52.5, but still signaling robust private sector growth.
In France, the HCOB flash composite PMI for overall activity rebounded from 47.7 in October to 49.9 this month, its highest level since August 2024, indicating near-stagnation in private sector activity in November.
The synthetic business climate indicator in France, calculated by Insee based on business leaders' responses, gained another point to reach 98 in November, moving closer to its long-term average (100).
With renewed uncertainty over Fed policy likely to keep investors on edge, it seems unlikely that equity markets will return to the calm that prevailed earlier this year.
With earnings season over and U.S. economic indicators returning after a six-week "shutdown," investors will shift their focus to the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve, watching closely for any sign of a shift in economic conditions or monetary policy.
This suggests more turbulent times ahead for equities, and investors who had grown accustomed to bargain-hunting on the rare recent dips--following the "buy the dips" adage--may find themselves disappointed this time.
In the bond market, the 10-year OAT yield fell 2 basis points to 3.466%, while the equivalent Bund dropped 3 points to 2.689%, leaving a spread of 77 basis points.
In London, Brent crude fell 1.65% to USD 62.2, while WTI similarly dropped to around USD 58.
The euro slipped a further 0.3% against the greenback, trading at USD 1.15.
In French corporate news, Veolia announced an agreement with Enviri to acquire Clean Earth, calling it "its largest and most transformative acquisition since the merger with Suez, both for accelerating its growth in the United States and in the American hazardous waste sector."
After a week-long suspension, Ubisoft returned to the Paris market at 10 a.m. today to publish its half-year results. The group reported an adjusted net loss attributable to the group of −37 million euros for the first half of its 2025-26 fiscal year, compared to a loss of −208.1 million euros a year earlier. Diluted non-IFRS earnings per share came in at −0.28 euros, versus −1.64 euros last year. After climbing more than 10%, the stock saw profit-taking and closed the session with a 3.9% gain.
Canal+ announced last night it has secured the renewal of 100% of its exclusive rights to the Champions League, Europe's most prestigious football competition, allowing it to continue broadcasting in France until 2031--news welcomed with "great relief" by analysts covering the stock.
Kering is preparing to launch "House of Dreams," a division aimed at identifying and supporting emerging brands in order to reduce the group's reliance on Gucci.
Finally, ArcelorMittal announced Friday that it had reduced its capital by canceling 77.8 million treasury shares, a move that comes as the world's largest steelmaker recently completed a share buyback program totaling 85 million shares.
