Yesterday, the President of the United States announced that semiconductors imported into his country will be taxed at 100%, except for companies that have committed to manufacturing in the United States (understood here to mean manufacturing ‘also’ in the United States). In the wake of this, Tim Cook of Apple confirmed, from the White House, a $100 billion investment in the country. This is an elegant way for the company to bow (slightly) to ‘Made in America’ and for the Trump administration to showcase the success of its relocation plan. The share price rose 5% yesterday, reflecting the market's reward for the forced reconciliation between the group and the White House.

Previously, Trump had raised customs surcharges on India from 25% to 50%. New Delhi continues to resist, refusing to accept a trade agreement that it considers too unbalanced. This standoff could have a considerable impact, as around 55% of products exported from India to the United States will be affected.

But Donald Trump is not content with just occupying the commercial arena. He is also working to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. So far, his attempts have failed, but dialogue has resumed. A senior US official believes that a meeting between Putin and Trump is very likely as early as next week. This could lead to a three-way summit between Zelensky, Putin and Trump in the short term. That is, if everything goes according to plan, given that the Kremlin leader has always managed to wriggle out of a tight spot so far. In theory, Washington's ultimatum for Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire expires on Friday.

Meanwhile, the stock market continues to hover close to record highs, oblivious to the noise surrounding the new political and trade paradigm. The density of quarterly corporate results will begin to decline from next week, but the season is still in full swing. Small disappointments are being punished severely (Super Micro Computer, Mosaic, AMD, Bayer, Zalando and Beiersdorf yesterday), while pleasant surprises are being richly rewarded (Arista, Hiscox, Diageo) and Palantir is rising regardless of the configuration. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended slightly lower at 541 points, while the S&P 500 regained 0.73%, helped by Apple's surge, it must be said.

This stock market strength continues to surprise some investors. But it is not without foundation. Major upheavals often leave public opinion and markets relatively indifferent, as long as everyday life remains unaffected. It does not matter that the foundations of the global economic system are being called into question, or that policies once considered unthinkable, such as the resurgence of protectionism and the politicisation of institutions, are becoming the norm: as long as employment holds up, no irreparable damage is done and consumer prices remain stable, the machine will continue to run without too much noise. This apparent stability acts as a collective anaesthetic, masking the real scope of the changes underway.

This form of passivity is not just a matter of ignorance. It also stems from the fact that the most serious consequences of these upheavals rarely manifest themselves immediately. Danger, when it is diffuse or delayed, is easier to ignore. As long as the feared scenarios do not materialise, or do not take the form of a sudden shock, concerns remain theoretical and reactions are measured or even non-existent. This lag between warning signs and risk perception allows the new rules of the game to take hold without any real resistance.

While we wait for the US tariffs to have a lasting effect, they are already having an impact on statistics. Chinese exports rose by 7.2% in July, buoyed by the temporary tariff truce with the US, according to data published last night. This pause has allowed manufacturers to anticipate the surcharges while awaiting the 12 August deadline for negotiations, which is likely to be postponed. Other macroeconomic highlights of the day include the Bank of England's decision on its key interest rate, which is expected to fall from 4.25% to 4%. The market will also be keeping a close eye on the weekly US employment figures and speeches by Fed members Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem this afternoon.

In Asia-Pacific, green is still the dominant colour, except in India, where the stock market is down 0.5% due to the toughening of US threats of tariffs. The Japanese Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and South Korea's KOSPI are up around 0.5%. In Taiwan, the TAIEX jumped more than 2% in the wake of TSMC, whose share price rose after Trump's comments on semiconductors, as the group is expected to escape tariffs thanks to its investments in the United States. The Australian ASX closed down slightly, by 0.2%. European leading indicators are hesitant, but more pronounced local variations could occur depending on morning corporate announcements.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: France's current account balance, trade balance, and wages; Germany's industrial production; in the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's bank rate; in the United States, new jobless claims, non-farm productivity, unit labor costs, and wholesale inventories. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.34
  • Gold: US$3,376.38
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$67.33
  • United States 10 years: 4.25%
  • BITCOIN: US$114,682

In corporate news:

  • Glencore has opted not to relocate its British listing to the United States.
  • Standard Chartered will sell millions of carbon credits to aid in the protection of the Amazon rainforest for the Brazilian state of Acre.
  • Tortilla Mexican Grill experienced a slowdown in like-for-like sales growth during the second quarter, yet anticipates its full-year 2025 financial results will meet market expectations.
  • CT Automotive Group shares surged following the company's announcement that it expects to meet market forecasts for revenue and profit in the 2025 financial year.
  • Workspace Group has seen Saba Capital Management acquire a stake, reflecting its investment strategy in the real estate sector.
  • CRH PLC reported a 2% profit growth in the second quarter of 2025, raised its dividend, and increased its full-year earnings forecast due to positive demand.
  • Allianz reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, driven by growth across all segments, and reaffirmed its full-year financial targets.
  • Deutsche Telekom raised its guidance following Q2 results that surpassed expectations with a reported revenue of EUR 28.67 billion.
  • Zurich Insurance Group reported a 6% increase in operating profit and a record net income attributable to shareholders of USD 3.1 billion.
  • Siemens reported its Q3 results aligning with forecasts, achieving a 3% revenue growth and higher net profit despite the impact of a weak dollar.
  • Generali and Mediobanca are negotiating a commercial agreement concerning Banca Generali.
  • Merck KGaA has increased its full-year operating earnings guidance following strong performances in its pharmaceuticals and lab equipment sectors.
  • Apple announces significant investments in US manufacturing, including a partnership with Samsung for chip production in Texas.
  • Microsoft has launched Azure Storage Discovery for its cloud platform.
  • General Motors and Hyundai have announced a partnership to jointly develop five new vehicles.
  • RB Global's second-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, showing an 8% increase compared to the same period last year.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Wpp Plc: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from GBX 480 to GBX 470.
  • Serco Group Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 230 to GBX 260.
  • Imi Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 2300 to GBX 2550.
  • Legal & General Plc: Mediobanca maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from GBX 278 to GBX 285.
  • International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.a.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from GBX 440 to GBX 500.
  • Quilter Plc: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from 1.25 to GBP 1.40.
  • British American Tobacco P.l.c.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 45 to GBP 49.
  • 4Imprint Group Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 55 to GBP 51.
  • Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from 0.75 to GBP 0.66.
  • Frasers Group Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 1200 to GBX 1100.
  • Glencore Plc: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 3.60 to GBP 3.70.
  • Unilever Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from 4900 to GBX 5100.
  • Coca-Cola Hellenic: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation with a price target reduced from 42 to GBP 40.
  • Diageo Plc: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from 2450 to GBX 2275.
  • Fresnillo Plc: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 18.50 to GBP 21.