Mib falls; Fed cut and new dot plot expected

(Alliance News) - The main index of the Italian Stock Exchange continues to decline in the third trading session of the week, with the reference level hovering marginally below the 43,400-point threshold.

The prevailing expectation is that the Federal Reserve will decide today to cut the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points, repositioning the target range in the corridor between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with the previous cuts made in September and October.

This move would bring the borrowing cost on the dollar to its lowest point since 2022. This monetary easing initiative is essentially determined by evidence of a rapid de-escalation in the labor market, although the Eccles Building is operating in a context of no government data releases, many of which have been suspended or postponed due to the ongoing shutdown.

The focus will primarily be on the release of the dot plot and the prospective rate trajectories developed by Fed officials for the 2026 time horizon. Following the September projections, which assumed a single rate cut in 2026, traders are pricing in about two further quarter-point cuts for the coming year, with a likely timing between June and September.

The MIB is therefore down 0.5% to 43,352.06 points.

The CAC 40 in Paris is down 0.3%, the FTSE 100 in London is up 0.1%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt is down 0.5%.

The Mid-Cap is down 0.6% to 58,319.20, the Small-Cap is down 0.3% to 36,024.25, while Italy Growth is down 0.1% to 8,439.80 points.

On the Mib, Prysmian is up 2.1% to EUR86.06 per share, after falling 1.9% in the previous session.

Lottomatica is up 2.0% to EUR21.54 per share, turning upward after five sessions of decline.

UniCredit - up 0.5% - is moving swiftly forward with its exit from Russia, according to Wednesday's Il Corriere della Sera. According to Kommersant, the group led by Andrea Orcel has sold the entire long-term portfolio of its subsidiary UniCredit-Leasing to Russia's Pr-Leasing, amounting to contracts worth RUB3 billion, equivalent to EUR34 million. The transaction was structured by anchoring payments to the dollar, while Pr-Leasing financed the purchase by issuing bonds in virtual currency with amortization synchronized to the flows of the leasing contracts.

The board of directors of Monte dei Paschi will meet on December 18 for the last ordinary meeting of the year, an opportunity to take stock of the twenty projects underway in the integration of the business with Mediobanca, as reported by Il Corriere della Sera on Wednesday.

MPS - down 1.1% - is awaiting the ECB's opinion on the amendment to the articles of association that would introduce the list of the outgoing board of directors in view of the renewal of the top management and board scheduled for April, so that it can convene the extraordinary shareholders' meeting. However, the process could take longer than expected. Approval from Frankfurt could take more time, even though the bank's goal remains to complete this phase before presenting its business plan.

Enel, down 0.3%, announced on Tuesday that it had acquired 14 million of its own ordinary shares between December 1 and 5. The shares were purchased at an average price of EUR 8.8271 per share, for a total value of EUR 123.9 million.

On the Mid-Cap, Intercos rose 3.8% to EUR10.98 per share, after three sessions of declines.

Philogen - up 0.9% - announced on Tuesday that it had purchased 4,000 treasury shares between December 1 and 5 at an average price of EUR 22.925 per share, for a total value of EUR 91,700.

Technoprobe rose 0.4% to EUR13.60 per share, after falling 1.5% the previous day.

Banca Ifis - down 1.5% - announced that it had signed an agreement to sell illimity Bank's 50% stake in Hype to Banca Sella. The transaction, announced to the markets on November 3 and formalized on December 9, involves a consideration of EUR 85 million and allows Banca Ifis to obtain an estimated capital benefit of approximately 55 bps on the CET1 ratio.

Tamburi - down 0.2% - announced on Tuesday that it had purchased 61,686 treasury shares between December 1 and 5 at a weighted average price of EUR 8.7255 per share, for a total value of EUR 538,240.56. Following the transactions, the company holds 22.1 million treasury shares, corresponding to 12% of the share capital.

On the Small-Cap market, It Way rose 2.3% to EUR1.32 per share, after falling 3.0% in the previous session.

Eurotech rose 3.3%, after a 0.1% decline the previous day, which interrupted a four-session upward trend.

At the bottom of the table, Digital Bros is down 2.2%, in its third session of decline.

Sales also prevail on I Grandi Viaggi, which is down 2.3% after two bullish sessions.

Among SMEs, Diadema Capital rose 6.2%, aiming for its fourth session to close in positive territory.

Maps, up 0.3%, announced that its subsidiary Maps Healthcare has been awarded the renewal of its agreement with the Emilia-Romagna Region for assistance, maintenance, and professional support for the applications used by healthcare companies in the region. The new three-year agreement has a maximum value of approximately EUR 11.8 million, up from EUR 8.6 million in the previous agreement, with the possibility of further extensions based on operational needs.

Mare Engineering Group - up 0.8% - asked Eles, which is not yet trading, in a statement released on Tuesday, to convene a shareholders' meeting to increase the board of directors from six to nine members, introducing three independent directors in order to strengthen transparency in the management of the company, which is currently the subject of two competing takeover bids. The request comes after Mare Group exceeded 30% of the voting rights exercisable at Eles' shareholders' meetings, thus transforming its offer from voluntary to mandatory.

Vivenda Group is at the bottom of the list, down 14%, heading for its third consecutive bearish candle.

In New York last night, the Dow Jones lost 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.1%, while the S&P 500 closed down 0.1%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD 1.1634 from USD 1.1639 at Tuesday's stock market close, while the pound is trading at USD 1.3312 from USD 1.3314 last night.

Among commodities, Brent crude traded at USD 62.00 per barrel, up from USD 61.98 per barrel at yesterday evening's close, while gold was worth USD 4,192.00 per ounce, down from USD 4,214.34 per ounce yesterday evening.

On Wednesday's economic calendar, US mortgage data will be released at 1300 CET. Reports on the US labor market are scheduled for 1430 CET. At 2000 CET, the Fed will announce its decision on interest rates.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News Reporter

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