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| This week's gainers and losers |
| Gainers: Applovin +77.34%: $9.2 was the price of a share in the software developer less than two years ago. Since then, the stock has soared and is now trading close to $250, thanks to this week's gains accumulated on the back of remarkable third-quarter results. Coinbase +48.04%: The whole crypto environment took off following the election of Donald Trump, who had taken favorable positions on these assets during his campaign. He has indicated that the government will hold bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and that he would like to replace Gary Gensler at the head of the SEC, the US stock exchange regulator, who is considered to be unfavorable to the development of digital currencies. Coinbase, one of the major exchange platforms, is well placed to benefit from this new momentum. Palantir +39.29%: There seems to be no stopping the data analysis specialist. On Tuesday, the stock soared by 23.5% after a further increase in annual forecasts. The company is one of the big winners in artificial intelligence. Lyft +31.9%: Shares soared after the company posted robust third-quarter results and a fourth-quarter outlook that came in better than expected. Tesla +29.01%: Donald Trump will be the next POTUS, and Tesla might just be the star of the show. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, has been instrumental in Trump's 2024 campaign and with Trump back in power, Tesla could enjoy a prime spot under the new administration. Investors are buying the stock in droves. Losers: Match Group -14.37%: The online dating site publisher's figures came in slightly below expectations, and the market didn't take kindly to the publication. Match Group owns Tinder, Hinge and Meetic. MercadoLibre -8.9%: South America's Amazon - listed in New York - reported well below expectations. Analysts were expecting earnings per share of $9.85; they got $7.83. The figures do, however, show strong year-on-year growth. AstraZeneca -10.15%: Several dozen executives from the British laboratory's Chinese unit may be implicated in a major insurance fraud case. This announcement overshadowed good results from clinical studies in obesity and persistent inflammation of the nasal mucosa. |
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| Commodities |
Energy : Oil markets remain dubious after the Republican victory in the US presidential election. The return of a pro-fossil fuel administration is not necessarily synonymous with support for oil prices. Electric mobility and the energy transition will probably be curbed, which is good for oil demand, but it will also make it easier to increase US production. In the shorter term, two factors tend to support prices: Hurricane Rafael, which is disrupting production in the Gulf of Mexico, and OPEC+, which has postponed its production increase by one month, to the end of December, due to low prices. On the price front, crude prices rose slightly this week, with Brent and WTI trading at 74.50 and 71 USD respectively. Metals : Base metal prices went in all directions this week. Donald Trump's victory represents a blow for industrial metals, particularly copper, which is penalized both for its important weight in the energy transition and by potential tariff barriers, damaging demand. On the other hand, the market is expecting China to step up its game with a more significant stimulus plan. As a result, the value of a tonne of copper is fluctuating sharply in London, trading at around USD 9,300 (cash price). In precious metals, the pressure is easing after the election-related fears, triggering profit-taking in gold, which is also suffering from a surge in the yield on the US 10-year bond. An ounce of gold is now trading around USD 2,690. Agricultural products: Corn prices recovered in Chicago. A bushel of corn is now trading around 430 cents (December 2024 contract). Wheat, on the other hand, stalled at 570 cents. |
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| Macroeconomics |
Atmosphere: The Trump effect has once again taken center stage in a week brimming with headlines. Following the announcement of the real estate mogul's re-election, US stock markets soared to new record highs, simultaneously boosting the dollar and bond yields. This might seem unexpected, especially as the Federal Reserve has just cut its key rates by another 25 basis points and hinted at more reductions to come. However, this isn't necessarily surprising. Short-term rates and long-term rates are on different paths. The recent rise in long-term rates signals concerns about inflation returning, driven by a resilient economy and a record deficit that Trump's promised tax cuts might exacerbate. Bond yields now hover at a critical juncture around 4.46% to 4.55%. It would be prudent not to breach this resistance level, as doing so could pave the way to 5% and potentially impact stock market indices, particularly those led by small and mid-cap companies. Crypto: In the wake of Trump's victory, bitcoin soared to new heights this week. The crypto-asset is now trading at around $76,300, a level never explored since its launch in 2009, and up over 10% since Monday. This rise can be explained, unsurprisingly, by the arrival in the White House of the Republican president, who had shown himself to be pro-crypto during his campaign, notably by announcing at a conference in Nashville this summer that he wanted to “make the United States the bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world”. The industry therefore expects the Trump administration to introduce more favorable regulation for industry players than Biden's. Now, it remains to be seen how these election promises will translate into concrete action in the economy. Beyond bitcoin, the main crypto-assets are following the same trend: ether (ETH) is up 20% at almost $3,000, Solana (SOL) is up 25% at around $205, and Dogecoin (DOGE) is up 21% at $0.19. |
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| Things to read this week | ||||||
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
