By
|
|
| This week's gainers and losers |
| TOPS: DS Smith +13.33%: Shares of DS Smith surged in London after retailer Zalando extended its agreement with the British packaging company as a preferred supplier of sustainable, fiber-based e-commerce solutions. Reddit +38.86%: The social media platform’s stock jumped after posting a profitable third quarter, revenue growth, and fourth-quarter outlook that exceeded consensus expectations. Paycom Software +27.95%: Shares of the HR software company soared more than 21% on Thursday, making it the top gainer on the S&P 500 that day, following an earnings report that beat expectations. After a period of struggle, the company appears to be turning things around. Altria +8.37%: Alongside strong earnings, the company unveiled a long-term plan to boost operational efficiency through generative AI and automation—a key move. Carvana +13.11%: Carvana’s shares surged after reporting higher-than-expected quarterly results, driven by sales growth and cost reduction. The stock is up over 350% year-to-date. Estée Lauder -23.69%: The American cosmetics giant, set for a leadership change in January, continued to suffer in the first quarter from declining consumer demand in Asia, particularly in China. A harsh blow. Super Micro Computer -44.89%: Ernst & Young, the auditing firm for Super Micro Computers, resigned after raising concerns about the management team's ethics, leading to a sharp drop in the server company's stock price. Crocs -20.59%: Shares of the casual footwear giant dropped over 17% on Tuesday after the company released a fourth-quarter earnings forecast that fell short of expectations. Aptiv -18.67%: The company reported a decline in third-quarter revenue and lowered its full-year outlook. The market responded harshly to the stock at the end of the week. Robinhood -11.42%: The controversial brokerage reported revenue and profit below consensus expectations. Such disappointments are severely punished in speculative stocks like these. |
|
| Commodities |
Energy: Escalation or de-escalation? This is the question the market is pondering after Israel’s “measured” response to Iran over the past weekend. Financial players initially leaned toward easing tensions between these regional powers, as Israel intentionally spared Iran’s oil infrastructure. This helped ease concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, putting significant downward pressure on prices at the start of the week. Prices dipped, but then recovered due to three key factors. First, OPEC+ is reportedly considering postponing its planned increase in output starting in December, supporting prices. Second, U.S. oil inventories saw a surprising drop (-0.5 million barrels versus a consensus of +1.5 million). Finally, the Iran-Israel situation is far from resolved, as Iran may launch retaliatory attacks against Israel. Price-wise, crude is losing ground, with Brent and WTI trading at $74.40 and $70.90, respectively. Metals: The industrial metals market remained calm this week, with operators caught between rising risk aversion ahead of the U.S. presidential election and positive economic data from China, showing a modest rebound in its industrial sector. Copper is holding steady at $9,500 per ton (spot price). Gold, meanwhile, remains well-positioned at $2,753. Agricultural Products: Cocoa prices are as volatile as ever, taking investors on a rollercoaster ride. After dropping 9% last week, prices have rebounded by 10% this week. |
|
| Macroeconomics |
Atmosphere: The calm before the storm. Macroeconomic indicators continue to support further rate cuts in the West. In both the U.S. and Europe, data alternates between lukewarm and cool, staying close to a central trend aligned with investor expectations—gradual monetary easing alongside a controlled economic slowdown. The aim, of course, is to lower borrowing costs to revive activity before it’s too late. In Japan, the central bank is playing a different game: while the BOJ left rates unchanged on Thursday, it hinted that further hikes are likely. A peculiar detail arose in the week's most anticipated statistic: U.S. job creation collapsed in October, but the Labor Department attributed this partly to strikes in the aerospace sector and hurricanes impacting the southeastern U.S. Thus, it’s hard to draw firm conclusions for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision next week. Almost all economists expect the Fed to reduce rates by an additional 25 basis points. In Asia, China’s manufacturing PMI indicators saw a symbolic improvement in October, entering expansion territory for the first time in months. Beijing's multiple stimulus announcements played a role, though investors are keen to see if this trend will hold in the coming months. Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with previous highs this week, gaining over 4% since Monday to reach around $71,000. BTC even soared to $73,600 on Tuesday, just $200 shy of its March peak of $73,800. This bullish momentum has been bolstered by massive inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which saw $2.2 billion in net inflows this week—one of the top three weeks for inflows since these products launched in January. This trend is largely driven by two factors: the outlook for rate cuts in the West, historically favorable for the crypto ecosystem, and speculation surrounding the U.S. elections, with expectations of a pro-crypto Trump administration, which could benefit the crypto industry if the Republican candidate is elected next week. |
|
|
| Things to read this week | ||||||
|
|
*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
