It's been an eventful week on the financial markets. At the beginning of the week, the Nikkei fell sharply following the first interest rate hike in Japan. The rise in the yen penalized Japanese export companies and marked the end of the carry trade. After Monday's overreaction, world stock markets regained their composure thanks to reassuring US employment data. This episode underlines the nervousness currently prevailing on the markets.
Weekly variations*
DOW JONES INDUST...
39,497.54  -0.6%
Chart DOW JONES INDUST...
NASDAQ 100
18,513.1  +0.39%
Chart NASDAQ 100
FTSE 100
8,168.1  -0.08%
Chart FTSE 100
GOLD
US$2,430.56  -0.42%
Chart GOLD
WTI
US$76.96  +4.67%
Chart WTI
EURO / US DOLLAR
US$1.09  +0.05%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers

Gainers :

Shopify (+27.32%): Shopify's shares surged after the company reported second-quarter revenue and profit that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The e-commerce platform also provided an optimistic outlook for the third quarter, expecting revenue growth in the low-to-mid-twenties percent range, which further fueled the stock's rally.

Axon (+24.85%): Axon Enterprise shares rose after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year revenue outlook. The technology and weapons company posted Q2 non-GAAP earnings of $1.20 per share, surpassing analysts' expectations of $0.98. Net sales for the quarter reached $504.1 million, significantly higher than the anticipated $478.4 million. Axon also increased its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $2.00 billion to $2.05 billion, up from the previous range of $1.94 billion to $1.99 billion

Palantir : (+21.3%): The company, known for its secretive operations and high-profile leadership, has been making strides in improving its financial health. Palantir shares jumped following the company's upward revision of its annual revenue forecast to $2.74 billion. The strong performance is attributed to unprecedented demand for its artificial intelligence solutions, which drove significant growth in both commercial and government sectors.

Fortinet :( +23.32%): Fortinet stock soared after the cybersecurity provider posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded Wall Street analyst estimates. A notable highlight was the growth in operating margin.

Kellanova (+18.89%): The stock of the U.S. snack maker rose due to the potential acquisition by Mars. It has a market value of $31 billion, including debt. Legal experts believe the deal has a good chance of passing global antitrust regulators. The acquisition would combine Mars' candy and sweets portfolio with Kellanova's salty snacks business. The new entity would account for roughly 12% of the US snacking and candy industry. As a privately held company, Mars does not have publicly traded stock.

Losers :

Super Micro Computer (-18.55%): Super Micro Computer shares dropped due to concerns over high production costs for AI server chips, which negatively impacted its profit forecast. The company's Q4 adjusted gross margin was 11.3%, below the analysts' estimate of 14.1%. Despite CEO Charles Liang's reassurance that margins would normalize by the end of fiscal 2025, the current-quarter profit forecast fell short of Wall Street targets. This overshadowed the company's optimistic sales forecasts.

McKesson (-14.15%): McKesson shares struggled after the release of its fiscal Q1 results, which missed revenue expectations. The company reported fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings of $7.88 per diluted share, exceeding analysts' estimates of $7.21. However, revenue for the quarter was $79.28 billion, falling short of the expected $82.6 billion. Despite boosting its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings guidance, the revenue miss led to a significant drop in the stock price.

Monster Beverage : (-10.75%): Monster Beverage reported Q2 results that missed Wall Street's estimates. Net income for the June quarter was $0.41 per share, below the expected $0.46. Sales rose 2.5% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $2.01 billion. The company cited lower growth rates in the energy drink category and reduced convenience store foot traffic as factors contributing to the weak performance. Additionally, operating expenses increased, further impacting profitability.

Airbnb (-10.26%): Airbnb's stock plunged after the company provided a disappointing forecast for the next quarter, citing a slowdown in demand from American tourists. Although the second-quarter revenue met expectations, the outlook for the upcoming quarter fell short, leading to a significant drop in share price.

Chart Commodities
Commodities
Energy: Long relegated to the background, geopolitics are back in the spotlight, this time in Ukraine with the surprise offensive by Ukrainian forces on Russian territory, in the Kursk oblast. In the Middle East, tension continues unabated, as observers continue to fear a retaliation by Iran and its regional proxies, which could target Israeli territory. Finally, improved economic data in the United States eased concerns about the dynamics of oil demand, allowing crude prices to rebound this week. European Brent crude is trading higher at around USD 79.1, while US WTI is trading at around USD 75.50 a barrel.

Metals: The sinking of the Caixin Manufacturing index into negative territory (below the 50-point mark) does not bode well for base metal prices, which continue to decline this week. A tonne of copper fell to USD 8794 (cash) in London, more than 20% down on its May 2024 peak. Similar dynamics are observed for aluminum (USD 2274) and zinc (USD 2646). Gold stabilized at USD 2425, benefiting overall from bets on the Fed's eminent easing of monetary policy, which could cut rates several times between now and the end of the year.

Agricultural products: In Chicago, corn prices continue to trend downwards due to favorable weather conditions for crops in the United States, synonymous with abundant supply. A bushel of corn is still trading at around 380 cents, while wheat is stabilizing at 540 cents.
Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics
Atmosphere: Tensions surrounding an economic slowdown in the US eased on the back of two encouraging indicators. On the one hand, the ISM services index of employment conditions came in above expectations at 51.1. On the other, the number of new weekly jobless claims remained below the 250k threshold. All this enabled equity indices to recover, without however clearly being able to invalidate the corrective structure underway for several weeks in the USA and several months in Europe. Similarly, interest rates have rebounded in tandem with the indices, but are still bumping up against 4.00% on the US 10-year. In parallel, we'll be keeping an eye on the 2.34/38% on the German 10-year. Bear in mind, too, that an easing in bond yields in a context of falling inflation is positive for the equity market, whereas it is negative when recessionary fears are involved.

Crypto: In the wake of the turbulence on traditional financial markets earlier this week, bitcoin (BTC) collapsed on Monday August 5. The crypto-asset took a 12% tumble in the space of 24 hours, and the ether (ETH) had shed 25% of its capitalization. More than $300 million evaporated from Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States between Monday and Tuesday. But just like the stock market indexes, crypto-currencies recovered after the release of reassuring job data. Since the start of the week, and despite Monday's heavy drop, BTC has been in positive territory, posting a 3.72% rise, and is now hovering around the $60,300 mark. Crypto-investors are now awaiting a rate cut decision from the Fed, which has historically been favorable for the price evolution of major crypto-currencies. 
Historical Chart
A lukewarm summer
The volatility gauge eased at the end of the week, but remains higher than in recent months. In other words, investors are still a little tense as we approach the end of the summer. More than anything else, they're hoping for a return to a tepid situation in the US: neither too many drags on the economy, nor too many accelerations, so that the Fed can cut rates at a decent pace from September onwards. To judge this, they will have the latest monthly US producer price (Tuesday) and consumer price (Wednesday) statistics, followed by retail sales and weekly employment figures (Thursday).

Next week's earnings announcements include UBS, Henkel, Pandora, Vestas and Adyen in Europe, and Home Depot, Cisco, Walmart, Applied Materials and Deere in the US.

The Japanese market is closed on Monday, but most European markets will be open on Thursday August 15. The editorial team wishes you an excellent weekend.
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.