The economy faces threats from potential 36% reciprocal tariffs and an influx of cheaper Chinese goods, which could undercut domestic producers.
Maybank economist Erica Tay expects first-quarter GDP growth of 2.7%, down from 3.2% in 4Q, citing weaker performance in manufacturing and tourism-related sectors.
"Although exports were buoyed by frontloading, some of that demand was met by running down inventories, which capped the boost to industrial output," Tay said.
MALAYSIA
Malaysia reports April trade data on Tuesday, with markets looking for signs of export strain due to global trade tensions.
RHB's Chin Yee Sian expects increased pressure on export-reliant sectors, including electronics, machinery, and crude materials tied to U.S. and China demand.
April CPI, due Thursday, will likely show that inflation remains well-contained, potentially strengthening the case for Bank Negra Malaysia to cut rates later this year.
Still, focus remains on whether subsidy reforms-especially for fuel-are starting to drive up prices. Moody's Analytics expects headline inflation to edge higher in the second half of the year, partly due to these reforms.
SINGAPORE
Revised first-quarter GDP data is due on Thursday and could be adjusted lower, as manufacturing weakness drags.
Advance estimates showed 1Q GDP growing 3.8% on year, below expectations and slower than 5.0% in 4Q. Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry has since trimmed its full-year forecast to 0.0%-2.0% from 1.0%-3.0%.
Barclays expects the economy to stabilize in the second half as tariff impacts fade.
Singapore will also release April inflation data on Friday. With price pressures easing, investors are watching for signs that MAS may loosen policy at its July meeting. Core inflation slowed to 0.5% in March from 0.6% in February.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Amanda Lee at amanda.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-18-25 1714ET
