On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump officially signed executive orders imposing new tariffs: 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on those from China. Canadian energy products, essential for US crude oil imports, are taxed at "only" 10%. These measures, justified in particular by the fight against the influx of drugs, especially fentanyl, take effect on February 4.
The products targeted range from Canadian cherry tomatoes to Tonka trucks made in China, tequila, avocados and even smartphones. American importers will have to absorb the initial cost, but consumers will foot the final bill via an across-the-board price hike. Contrary to popular belief, it is not the exporting countries that pay the surcharges, but the importers.
Reaction to this tariff offensive has been swift. Canada is planning equivalent retaliation on C$125 billion worth of U.S. imports, targeting flagship products such as beer, bourbon and household appliances. Mexico is preparing similar measures on agricultural products, steel and aluminum. China, meanwhile, is promising countermeasures, but plans to open talks in parallel. Donald Trump has already announced that he will negotiate with Canada and Mexico. Shoot first, talk later, a strategy he had already implemented during his first term.
The US economy: a risky gamble against a backdrop of inflation
For the United States, these tariffs are likely to have a double perverse effect. On the one hand, they will increase the cost of imports - almost half of American imports will come from these three countries in 2023 (15% from Mexico, 13.9% from China and 13.7% from Canada). On the other hand, they weaken US exporters, who will suffer retaliation from their partners.

Breakdown of US imports in 2022. By 2023, China's share has fallen (Source OEC).
The most exposed sectors are the automotive and manufacturing industries, which are deeply intertwined in cross-border supply chains, according to ING's economics team. Production costs will soar, affecting the competitiveness of American companies. The agricultural sector, already shaken by the previous trade war, could again suffer from countermeasures, particularly on soybeans and pork.
On the macroeconomic front, inflation is likely to be the big winner. Rising prices for imported goods will quickly become apparent. In the short term, consumers may rush their purchases to avoid higher prices, but this dynamic will only be a reprieve before the painful reality of reduced purchasing power, particularly for the most modest households.
Europe in the firing line: the domino effect of trade tensions
While the European Union has not yet been directly targeted, it remains in the Trump administration's crosshairs. Germany, the third-largest contributor to the US trade deficit after China and Mexico, could be next on the list. A trade investigation report is expected in April 2025, a turning point that could mark the EU's entry into this customs war.
Even without direct sanctions, Europe is already affected. Many European companies, particularly in the automotive sector, produce in Mexico for the US market. The new tariffs on Mexico will therefore hit European interests indirectly. The EU could react by imposing tariffs on emblematic American products or by negotiating concessions, as during the previous Trump administration (purchase of LNG or American soybeans in exchange for tariff appeasement).
A global impact: towards a fractured new economic order?
Beyond the United States and Europe, the entire global economy is in danger of faltering. Skyrocketing tariffs are disrupting global supply chains, undermining international trade and threatening global economic growth. Emerging countries, often intermediate suppliers to major economies, could be the first collateral victims of this economic tug-of-war.
China could redirect its exports towards other markets, notably Southeast Asia and Latin America, but the transition will be costly. The risk of a lasting fragmentation of world trade, with more closed economic blocs, is becoming tangible. Globalization, already weakened by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, is taking another blow.
By targeting its three main trading partners simultaneously, the White House seems to be throwing almost all its forces into the battle from the outset. The offensive is more violent than during Trump's first term.