At his last G7 summit, Donald Trump withdrew his support for the final communiqué issued in Quebec. This year, no joint statement is planned in order to avoid any signs of division. The format has been adapted to reflect current tensions, with more bilateral meetings than usual, a sign that collective dialogue is running out of steam.

Bilateral relations between Canada and the United States remain tense. One of Mark Carney's priorities will therefore be to contain the unpredictability of the US president, in a context where Canada is regularly targeted by Donald Trump, who has never hidden his fantasy of making it the 51st state of the United States.

A revealing guest list

Several other leaders will be present, including those from India, Ukraine, Mexico, South Korea, Australia, and South Africa. According to an anonymous Canadian government source quoted by AFP, this is a way of diversifying partnerships: "Since the United States is no longer a reliable partner for us, we want to develop or strengthen other relationships. These invitations are made for that purpose."

On the agenda: the Middle East, Ukraine, oil... and Trump

The conflict in the Middle East is obviously on the agenda. Leaders are working on a joint statement, according to AFP, while the UK has deployed fighter jets to the region and Iran is threatening the US, France, and Britain in the event of intervention.

The war in Ukraine will also be discussed. The Ukrainian president hopes to speak to Donald Trump, who had a cordial exchange with Vladimir Putin over the weekend. Putin even took the opportunity to wish him a happy birthday. This closeness contrasts with European calls to strengthen sanctions against Russia, particularly on oil. But nothing can be done without the approval of the US president, who holds the keys to this summit.

With the tensions of recent years escalating into armed conflict, and with less than ten days to go before the NATO summit, the US will argue for increasing allies' military spending to 5% of GDP. Although all of its allies have announced an increase, or their intention to do so, this is not enough for the US president. The European Union, meanwhile, will try to justify its reluctance, denouncing the call for massive investment in defense at a time when its economies are weakened... by the same partner making this demand.

The G7 faces a fragmented world

The G7 now accounts for 44% of the global economy, compared with 63% in 1992. This decline illustrates the fragmentation of global economic power.

The presence of external guests is a tradition, but this year their role is more strategic than ever:

  • Mexico: invited by Canada to discuss a trilateral meeting with the United States on the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is due to be revised by next year.

  • India: Discussions are planned on critical minerals as the country benefits from an aggressive policy on the subject.

  • South Korea: A loyal ally of the Western bloc, its new president, Lee Jae-myung, will meet Donald Trump for the first time in a possible three-way meeting with Japan on security in Asia.

India's participation, despite its diplomatic tensions with Canada, illustrates both the segmentation of world powers as representatives of the BRICS and Asia's growing weight on the diplomatic stage.

A summit under high tension

As the G7 celebrates its 50th anniversary, it is more than ever challenged to find common ground in a divided world. Between war, economic uncertainty, and contested US leadership, the club of seven is seeking to remain relevant but seems to be struggling to speak with one voice.