Gold shines, corn withers
Gold hit an all-time high at the end of last week at $2,118 an ounce. The precious metal rose on the back of a fall in the US dollar and Treasury bond yields, as investors bet on the Fed cutting interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.
Its curve contrasts with that of corn, whose price per bushel has fallen to its lowest level since December 2020, at $4.5. Supply of this cereal is abundant, fueled by Brazil and the United States, which increased their acreage at the peak of inflation, but demand remains sluggish, weighed down by the reduction in world livestock numbers.
Dzien dobry Warsawa! (Hello Warsaw!)
The Polish indices have climbed into the Top 15 of the 5-day bullish variations in my list of international indices. So what happened? Boosted by foreign investment and relative political and economic stability, the financial centre of Europe's 6th largest economy, the largest stock exchange in Central Europe, is flourishing. The Poland WIG 20 , for example, has been in a steady and similar uptrend since October 2022, clearly distinguishing itself from the continent's flagship index, the Euro Stoxx 600.
Weighed down by a strong banking component, Polish markets are benefiting from the sector's renewed confidence that central bank interest rates will be cut sooner than expected. The positive trend in copper, boosted by production disruptions in Panama and Peru, also supported KGHM Polska Mied, one of the 20 companies in the Wig20.
Bye Bye Shanghai!
At the opposite end of the spectrum, China's indices continue to stick out their tongues. Despite Beijing's support and stimulus measures, real estate is still in the danger zone and consumer confidence remains low.
The downturn in MSCI China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Citic 50 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is all the more visible when compared with the strength of Japan's financial center.