If there is one asset that should not be disappointed by the non-farm payrolls report, it is the dollar. In a difficult position for months, it is trying to gain a few points on the back of US statistics that once again illustrate the Americans' ability to overcome difficulties. The impact of tariffs is not yet being felt in the price index, although the Fed believes that the coming months should see a temporary and limited uptick in inflation. If they are wrong, it is highly likely that rates will fall in September.
In the meantime, the dollar is trying to recover, although it is far too early to envisage a real reversal of the trend. We will be watching for initial support at 1.1650 on the EUR/USD before the key support level of 1.14410, with 1.3390 on the British pound at the same time.
The USD/JPY is trading without any clear trend within a horizontal consolidation channel between 142 and 148.75, while the USD/CHF has reached its target of 0.7900 without triggering any strong upward reaction at this stage. We will monitor initial resistance at 0.8040 before the 50-day moving average, with resistance at 0.8180.
On the commodity currency front, the USD/CAD is consolidating flat below initial resistance at 1.3805/60. The Aussie and Kiwi are not particularly dynamic but remain positively oriented above 0.6430/10 and 0.5935/15 respectively.
Finally, we will be closely monitoring the behavior of the EUR/MXN. After falling sharply last April, it has stabilized above 21.60. A break below this level would signal a resumption of the downtrend and could be used to position oneself for both directional and carry trades.
