As America prepares to light sparklers and grill hot dogs on this truncated trading Thursday, with Wall Street closing at 1pm ahead of the Fourth of July, the stock market sits still. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hover near record highs, futures rose just a hair—0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1% for the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow respectively.

The restraint might seem quaint, as the June employment report, dropped at 8:30 a.m., surprised to the upside. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, better than the forecasted 4.3%. Jobless claims came in light at 233,000, and average hourly earnings rose just 0.2%—a Goldilocks print: not too hot to spook the Fed, not too cold to signal decay.

This contrasts with Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, which showed the U.S. economy lost 33,000 private-sector jobs in June. Analysts had expected a gain of 98,000. The Nasdaq 100 sagged just 0.2 after the report, the digital equivalent of a raised eyebrow. Then… nothing.

And that's the market we're in now: reactive, yes, but deeply inclined toward optimism—even when the evidence offers room for doubt. The American investor, in 2025, is less speculator than alchemist: sifting whatever comes down the pipe into the raw materials of hope. The Federal Reserve has made clear it needs softness—slower wage growth, rising unemployment, cooling demand—before considering interest rate cuts. Powell, leading the "higher-for-longer" camp, has argued that sticky inflation and "a solid labor market" justify keeping rates mildly restrictive. The data just handed him a fresh talking point.

Markets had recently priced in a 25.3% chance of a July rate cut, up from 20.7% last week. That wager now looks fanciful. Treasury yields leapt on the jobs report; the bond market, unlike equities, still remembers how to flinch. And yet, equity traders, riding a year-long rally powered by AI dreams and soft-landing narratives, are hard to dissuade. No rate cut? Fine. No recession? Even better. The market has internalized the idea that good news is good, bad news is good, and only outright catastrophe deserves panic.

Nowhere is this logic more surreal than in the tariff drama unfolding between the U.S. and Vietnam. A few weeks ago, Donald Trump, amid his “Tariff Freedom Day” antics, proclaimed tariffs on Vietnamese imports could rise to 46%. Then came the real news: Washington and Hanoi signed a trade agreement setting tariffs at a more digestible 20%. Nike, which sources half its shoes from Vietnam, soared 4% on the announcement. Never mind that 20% is still a steep surcharge. What mattered to markets is that it wasn't 46%.

Beneath this celebratory shrug is a real cost. A 20% tariff still means higher prices for importers. U.S. consumers, already squeezed by years of inflation and dislocated supply chains, will foot the bill eventually. The agreement also includes a 40% surcharge on goods “in transit” through Vietnam—a bulwark against Chinese rerouting.

Even as macro policy plays out like performance art, the stock market continues its fascination with the micro. Shares of Tripadvisor jumped 9% after activist investor Starboard Value disclosed a more-than-9% stake. More meaningful, perhaps, was the surge in Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems—both up more than 6%—after the U.S. lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China. The implication? Maybe the U.S. is willing to ease—slightly—on technology policy to maintain influence over global supply chains. Or maybe it's just a brief reprieve before a renewed crackdown. Either way, markets rewarded it.

Outside the U.S., markets reflected their own disjointed tempos. Asia traded mixed. Japan and Australia hovered. Hong Kong fell 0.7%, erasing some of Wednesday's gains. China's May services PMI disappointed again—Beijing's long-promised domestic recovery remains elusive. Taiwan and South Korea, however, benefited from the ripple of U.S. tech optimism, climbing 0.7% and 1.2% respectively. India rose 0.4%. Europe is indecisive.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Japan's Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs; China's Caixin Composite PMI; Switzerland's CPI; France, Germany, Eurozone, and United Kingdom's Composite and Services PMIs; in the United States, non-farm payroll changes, new unemployment claims, trade balance, unemployment rate, Composite and Services PMIs, durable goods orders, factory orders, and the ISM Services Index. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 96,512
  • Gold: $3,344
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $68.41 (WTI) $66.50
  • United States 10 years: 4.34%
  • BITCOIN: $109,600

In corporate news:

  • Vale reduced its production forecast for iron ore agglomerates in 2025.
  • Tesla reported a 3.7% increase in China EV sales in June.
  • Lucid Group missed Q2 delivery estimates due to soft demand.
  • Centene's stock plummeted 40% and withdrew its 2025 earnings forecast.
  • Lands' End received acquisition bids from Authentic Brands and WHP Global.
  • Enterprise Products Partners was authorized to resume ethane shipments to China.
  • Embraer reported a 30% year-on-year increase in aircraft deliveries in Q2 2025.
  • Microsoft announced a reduction of 9,000 employees.
  • Synopsys and Cadence are preparing to resume exports of chip design software to China.
  • Activist investor Starboard Value has acquired a stake of more than 9% in online travel company Tripadvisor.
  • Vietnam will purchase 50 Boeing aircraft, according to Politico.
  • NuVista is reducing its annual production forecast due to delays at a third party.
  • Alpha and Omega Semiconductor will pay $4.25 million to settle a dispute with the US Department of Commerce over the shipment of goods to
  • Chinese company Huawei Technologies.
  • Boeing and the U.S. Justice Department asked a federal judge to endorse a settlement that would dismiss criminal fraud charges over the 737 MAX crashes and spare the planemaker from prosecution in return for fines and victim-compensation funding.
  • Synopsys said U.S. export restrictions on its chip-design software to China have been rescinded, a move echoed by Cadence and Siemens that sent electronic-design-automation shares higher.
  • Datadog will enter the S&P 500 index on 9 July, replacing Juniper Networks and boosting the cloud-monitoring firm's stock ahead of the change.
  • Nike and other Vietnam-focused manufacturers gained relief after President Trump set a lower-than-feared 20 % tariff on Vietnamese exports to the United States.
  • AT&T has completed the $7.6 billion sale of its remaining 70 % stake in DirecTV to private-equity firm TPG Capital.
  • Alibaba Cloud will invest more than $60 million this fiscal year in partner incentives and joint marketing to speed global adoption of its AI and cloud services.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Fedex Corporation: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to outperform from underperform with a price target raised from USD 230 to USD 270.
  • Huntington Bancshares Incorporated: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 21.
  • INTERNATIONAL GA: Macquarie upgrades to outperform from dropped coverage with a target price of USD 37.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: SinoPac Securities upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 89.
  • Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc.: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • United Parcel Service, Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane downgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target reduced from USD 105 to USD 100.
  • Api Group Corporation: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 31.33 to USD 39.
  • Citizens Financial Group, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 43 to USD 53.
  • Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 81 to USD 98.
  • Datadog, Inc.: Wedbush maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 140 to USD 170.
  • East West Bancorp, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 90 to USD 111.
  • Fluor Corporation: Truist Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 47 to USD 59.
  • Fortive Corporation: Truist Securities maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 82 to USD 60.
  • Jpmorgan Chase & Co.: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 296.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 80 to USD 105.
  • Webster Financial Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from 50 to USD 64.