We've talked many times about the "Trump Trade", which consists of investing in assets that are expected to benefit from Donald Trump's return to office. Certain themes have already been widely exploited since September, but experience shows that certain trends can take hold for a long time to come. Let's start by listing some of the assets that are highly sensitive to US political extremes:

  • Cryptocurrencies, because Donald Trump embraced their cause late in life: Coinbase, MicroStrategy, bitcoin...
  • Currencies: the dollar should benefit from the USA's aggressive protectionist policy, the Swiss franc from increased international tensions.
  • US SMEs: Russell 2000.
  • Broader upside base for equities: S&P 500 Equalweight vs. S&P 500.
  • Assets linked to Elon Musk: Tesla, for example.
  • Sectors set to benefit from deregulation: banks (especially regional), private operators of public services (prisons, etc.).
  • Defense players (particularly in Europe, the continent presumed to have been "abandoned" by Donald Trump).
  • Less favorable interest rates (protectionism, relocation, lower taxes).
  • Reinforced pumping: parapetroleum companies.

This is how a "Pro Trump" ETF portfolio might look, i.e. the translation into financial products of what we've just listed. There are sometimes several equivalent products, so we have focused on the liquidity/fee combination (in other words, this article is not sponsored):

This is a relatively risky selection, since it is a single scenario and has not been subject to any specific risk or diversification treatment. It is intended to show one way in which current themes can be applied to ETFs.