The reversal followed days of market jitters, diplomatic scrambling, tariff threats and a fair amount of eye-rubbing in European capitals. Trump emerged in Switzerland to announce what he called "the framework of a future deal" with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The threat of tariffs receded. Greenland was no longer, apparently, for sale.

What exactly this framework contains remains a mystery. It almost certainly does not involve any transfer of sovereignty: Denmark's prime minister was clear that "we cannot negotiate on our sovereignty" - and it may involve U.S. access to raw materials or expanded Arctic security cooperation. Or it may simply involve everyone agreeing to stop yelling for a while. Even Trump appeared hazy on the details, at one point muddling Greenland and Iceland. Officials familiar with the talks have been tight-lipped, perhaps out of discretion, perhaps because they, too, are waiting to see what's actually in the box.

Still, this is Trump's familiar rhythm: escalate to de-escalate. Push until something creaks, then pull back just far enough to claim victory. Markets (Or us in the media), you might think, would have learned by now.

Once the U-turn became clear, relief washed through global markets. U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-day gain in two months and small-cap stocks jumping even more. Volatility, which had spiked to a two-month high, retreated. Futures continued higher the next morning. Across the Atlantic, Europe steadied itself. In Asia, Japan and South Korea rose strongly, while Hong Kong lagged by a symbolic fraction of a percent - just enough to be contrarian.

But to attribute the rebound solely to Greenland would be too simple. Markets love a good plot twist, but they also need supporting characters. This time, the semiconductor sector stepped into the spotlight. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, was in Davos delivering what has become his signature message: artificial intelligence is not a bubble, it's a beginning, and it will require trillions of dollars to build. He says this often. The world doubts, AI Jensen reassures the world, stocks go up. It's a routine that works remarkably well.

Not everyone is equally lyrical. Microsoft's CEO offered a cooler note, pointing out that, eventually, all that expensive infrastructure will need to be used. Investors, at least for now, preferred Jensen's optimism. Intel shares surged to their highest level in four years ahead of earnings, buoyed by analyst upgrades. AMD extended its longest winning streak in nearly a year on hopes of booming demand for AI server chips. Even companies merely adjacent to the story caught a lift.

Defensive assets paid the price for this renewed enthusiasm. Gold slipped as geopolitical fears eased, though few are abandoning it entirely - especially after Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2026 to $5,400 an ounce.

At home, the institutional guardrails were also on display. On Wednesday, Supreme Court justices across the ideological spectrum expressed discomfort with Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The Court appears inclined to keep her in place while the case proceeds. It is a setback for a White House eager to exert more influence over monetary policy.

That influence question looms large as investors turn their attention back to economic data. A backlog of delayed releases is finally landing: revised third-quarter GDP, weekly jobless claims, and the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The release this morning did little to change the picture. Weekly jobless claims came in at 200,000, below expectations, while third-quarter GDP was revised slightly higher to a 4.4% annualized pace. Core PCE inflation for the quarter was confirmed at 2.9%, exactly in line with forecasts. Solid numbers, but also dated ones - useful for confirmation, not for direction. Markets are far more concerned with where inflation and growth are heading than where they were last autumn. For now, the figures offered reassurance rather than excitement, and futures remained firmly in the green, with the Dow Jones up 0.4%, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 leading with a 0.9% gain.

Corporate season continues. Procter & Gamble, GE Aerospace, Abbott Laboratories, and Intel are among the big names reporting, offering clues about consumer demand, cost pressures, and how companies navigated a bumpy year-end. Early signs are mixed: GE beat expectations, McCormick disappointed with its outlook, and P&G's revenue just missed forecasts, keeping worries about weak consumer spending alive.

So yes, you can relax a little. The Greenland scare passed. The tariffs didn't land. Stocks bounced. But it's worth noting how little it took to rattle confidence, and how quickly relief turned into complacency. We may not know what we narrowly avoided, or whether we avoided anything at all. What we do know is that this is the pattern now: sudden brinkmanship, hurried diplomacy, and markets that swing between panic and shrug.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: employment figures from Australia, followed by FDI in China; in the United Kingdom, the CBI distributive trades will be released; in the Euro Area, the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts and the consumer confidence flash; in the United States, the GDP price index, GDP growth rate, initial jobless claims, PCE price indices, and personal income and spending; in Canada, the new housing price index; EIA crude oil and gasoline stocks in the United States; in Australia, S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,685
  • Gold: $4,825
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $64.12 (WTI) $59.52
  • United States 10 years: 4.25%
  • BITCOIN: $89,964

In corporate news:

  • The Carlyle Group is nearing a sale of its Penha Longa Resort & Hotel in Portugal to L Catterton and Cedar Capital Partners, as part of its asset divestment strategy.
  • Pinnacle Financial Partners reported Q4 earnings and revenue below analyst expectations, causing its shares to drop over 4% premarket.
  • Alibaba is planning an IPO for its chipmaking unit T-Head, though the timing and valuation remain uncertain.
  • Venture Global won an arbitration case against Repsol, marking its second legal victory in LNG contract disputes, boosting its stock by up to 17%.
  • Walmart and Tiger Global will sell shares in the upcoming IPO of Indian digital payments firm PhonePe, which is offering 50.7 million shares through existing investors.
  • OpenAI, backed by Microsoft, is in talks with Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds to raise up to $50 billion in a new funding round.
  • Valero Energy and Phillips 66 have purchased discounted Venezuelan crude oil cargoes from Vitol for U.S. Gulf Coast delivery.
  • Chevron aims to complete the $1 billion sale of its Singapore refinery and regional assets to Eneos and Glencore within Q1.
  • Deutsche Börse Group will acquire Allfunds for $6.19 billion in cash, stock, and dividends in a major wealth management deal.
  • Warner Bros Discovery is paying JPMorgan and Allen & Company a combined $180 million in M&A advisory fees, regardless of whether Netflix or Paramount wins the acquisition battle.
  • Surging memory chip prices driven by AI infrastructure demands from OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft are expected to hurt consumer electronics sales at companies like HP, Xiaomi, and Raspberry Pi in 2026.
  • Sweeping anti-vaccine policy changes under U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are hurting revenue expectations for major vaccine makers like Pfizer, Sanofi, GSK, Moderna, and BioNTech.
  • Microsoft invests heavily in artificial intelligence to enhance product offerings.
  • Apple acquires a space startup to expand satellite technology capabilities.
  • Amazon divests its stake in a logistics company to streamline operations.
  • PGIM introduces a private credit secondaries platform backed by a $1 billion investment commitment.
  • Assured Guaranty Ltd acquires Warwick Re Limited and rebrands it as Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd.
  • CPKC orders 30 additional Tier 4 locomotives from Progress Rail as part of its $800M U.S. investment pledge.
  • Walmart, Microsoft, and Tiger Global to sell 50.7 million shares in PhonePe's Indian IPO.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Chemed Corporation: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 550 to USD 475.
  • Datadog, Inc.: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold and reduces the target price from USD 205 to USD 160.
  • Elanco Animal Health Incorporated: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 24 to USD 30.
  • Qiagen N.v.: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 54.
  • Zoetis Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 190 to USD 135.
  • Albemarle Corporation: Clarksons Securities AS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 110 to USD 220.
  • Cardinal Health, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 220 to USD 270.
  • Citizens Financial Group, Inc.: D.A. Davidson maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 59 to USD 73.
  • Coherent Corp.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 168 to USD 220.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Clarksons Securities AS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 46 to USD 73.
  • Halliburton Company: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 30 to USD 40.
  • Lam Research Corporation: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 190 to USD 265.
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 220 to USD 400.
  • Mks Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 180 to USD 265.
  • Netflix, Inc.: China Renaissance Research maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1170 to USD 90.
  • Servicenow, Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 186 to USD 120.