When the history of this economic cycle is written, it may look less like a clean turning point and more like a series of half-measures and improvised deals. Take the Federal Reserve. When officials gather this week for their final rate-setting meeting of the year, as much as half the room may not actually want to cut rates at all. Yet a cut is still what markets expect. Pricing in futures markets puts the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction at just under 90%. Traders even pencil in another 50 basis points of easing next year.

This is the strange world of the "hawkish cut". Investors have convinced themselves that the Fed will trim rates on Wednesday and, in the same breath, warn that it might not do that again for a while. 

An unusually divided Federal Open Market Committee means dissenting votes are considered likely, just as they were at the October meeting. That tension is not entirely irrational. Inflation remains stubborn and above the Fed's 2% target. At the same time, secondary indicators suggest that the once red-hot labour market is cooling in some sectors. 

U.S. equity futures are modestly higher, and the S&P 500 sits within 1% of a record high. Other markets are in a holding pattern. The dollar is steady. Oil prices have slipped, extending earlier losses as traders weigh talks to end the war in Ukraine, the risk of a global supply surplus and U.S. rate moves. Gold is broadly flat. Policy choices and political improvisation are shaping markets at least as much as the usual economic models.

Nowhere is that clearer than in semiconductors. Nvidia, the chip designer at the heart of the artificial-intelligence boom, has secured approval to resume exports of its H200 processors - its second-most powerful AI chips - to China. Donald Trump says he will allow shipments to "approved customers in China and other countries", under conditions he insists will preserve national security. In return, he says, "25% will be paid to the United States of America". In effect, Washington has awarded itself a state-level royalty on a private company's exports.

Investors seem to love it. Nvidia's shares gained around 1–1.5% in pre-market trading. AMD and Intel both added about 0.5% after Mr Trump suggested similar treatment for other semiconductor firms, feeding hopes that America's AI champions can preserve at least some access to the Chinese market.

However, a report in the Financial Times dampened the mood. It suggested that Beijing may curb or block domestic firms from buying these very chips. Export controls on U.S. AI hardware have already been a central point of friction in talks between Washington and Beijing this year. Now both capitals are improvising industrial policy on the fly: America taxes the chips, and China may simply tell its companies not to buy them.

The corporate world is adjusting to these pressures in its own way. Ford has turned to Renault to help it produce small electric vehicles for Europe, in a bid to fight back against cheaper Chinese cars. "We know we're in a fight for our lives in our industry, and no better example than here in Europe," says Jim Farley, Ford's chief executive. The first of two models is due in 2028, hardly tomorrow in a fast-moving market, but a sign of how legacy carmakers feel compelled to band together.

BMW, meanwhile, has opted for continuity, appointing Milan Nedeljkovic, a company veteran who joined in 1993 and has run production since 2019, as its next chief executive from next year.

In equity-market subplots, traders are watching a bidding war involving Paramount, Skydance and Netflix over Warner Bros. The tussle has lifted Warner's shares by 11% over two sessions, with another 0.5% added in early Tuesday trading, a reminder that old-world studios still have something streaming-era money wants.

Warner has been the target of takeover for years, and it never brought much luck to its owners. To speak of a time the under-20s cannot know, the merger between Time and Warner in the late 1980s failed to ignite. As did the acquisition of Time Warner by AOL in 2000, described by some as one of the greatest fiascos in US M&A history. At the time AOL was perhaps the world's largest internet service provider, and merging content with infrastructure must have seemed a bold idea. But the deal was poorly executed and possibly too avant-garde. A repeat attempt came in 2018 when AT&T acquired Time Warner, aiming similarly to create a media giant owning both content and network. The experiment proved no more successful than AOL's, though it was shorter and somewhat less value-destroying. The telecom operator eventually divested its unwieldy media diversification by merging Warner with Discovery, whose share price initially collapsed. The moral is that a Warner curse may indeed hang over its buyers. Netflix has, in fact, just endured four sessions of losses, perhaps the market hasn't forgotten history so quickly. The CEO of the world's most famous streaming platform, however, reminded investors that unlike previous acquirers, his company actually operates in the same business as Warner and understands what it is buying. In any event, the share-price battle is on.

On the earnings front, investors have AutoZone, Campbell's and GameStop to pick over.

In Ukraine, European leaders are scrambling to ensure they have a meaningful voice in U.S.-led peace efforts. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany met President Volodymyr Zelensky at Keir Starmer's Downing Street office on Monday, a visible attempt to influence negotiations as Washington pushes for a swift deal to end the war. Europe wants to be sure that any agreement does not leave Ukraine, and by extension the rest of the continent, exposed to future Russian aggression. The slipping oil price, which reflects both talk of ending the war and worries about a supply glut, is an almost incidental side effect.

In the Asia-Pacific region, red dominates, mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and India all in the red. Only Japan manages, albeit barely, to cling to gains. Leading indicators in Europe are slightly negative. Futures on Wall Street remain flat.

Today's economic highlights:

Today: in the United States, non-farm productivity and unit labor costs will be released. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,158
  • Gold: $4,202
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.49 (WTI) $58.80
  • United States 10 years: 4.17%
  • BITCOIN: $90,410

In corporate news:

  • Invesco reported $2.15 trillion in assets under management as of November 30, 2025.
  • Accenture partnered with Anthropic to become the premier AI partner for Claude, training 30,000 staff and launching a center of excellence.
  • Wells Fargo CEO said U.S. consumer spending remains extremely strong at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference.
  • Exxon Mobil increased its earnings growth target to $25B and raised oil production goals through 2030, supported by assets in Guyana and the Permian Basin.
  • Home Depot forecast fiscal 2026 sales and profit below estimates due to weaker demand in home improvement projects and sees growth potential if housing recovers.
  • Chinese chips still lag behind Nvidia's H200 in performance, though some can match the downgraded H20 chip; Huawei plans more advanced chips by 2028.
  • Johnson & Johnson said its Tecvayli and Darzalex Faspro combo significantly improves survival for multiple myeloma patients and seeks approval for earlier use.
  • Eli Lilly announced that Jaypirca improved progression-free survival by 80% over standard treatment in CLL/SLL patients.
  • Pfizer licensed weight-loss drug YP05002 from Fosun's YaoPharma, with up to $2B in potential milestone payments.
  • FirstEnergy issued 2026 earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share, supported by $6B in capital investments and planned dividend payouts.
  • Walmart CEO noted financial pressure on low-income consumers and a growing customer base among higher-income shoppers.
  • Ferguson Enterprises slightly missed Q1 revenue estimates but beat EPS expectations and forecast 5% net sales growth in 2025.
  • CVS Health forecast higher-than-expected 2026 profit, raised its 2025 outlook, and highlighted success from turnaround efforts.
  • HF Sinclair forecast an 11% drop in 2026 capex to $775M due to reduced maintenance costs and plans to expand pipeline infrastructure.
  • Warner Bros Discovery faces a $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid from Paramount Skydance.
  • PepsiCo plans to review its North American supply chain and reduce product offerings by 20%.
  • Google is set to launch AI glasses next year and faces a trademark defense from Tachyum.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Colgate-Palmolive Company: RBC Capital upgrades to outperform from sector perform with a target price of USD 88.
  • Confluent, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform. 
  • Draftkings Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to buy from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 53.50 to USD 44.60.
  • Eaton Corporation Plc: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 413.
  • Fmc Corporation: Barclays downgrades to underweight from equalweight and reduces the target price from USD 16 to USD 13.
  • Intel Corporation: KGI Securities Co Ltd upgrades to outperform from hold and raises the target price from USD 39 to USD 52.
  • Lattice Semiconductor Corporation: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 23 to USD 21.
  • Otis Worldwide Corporation: BNP Paribas upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 92 to USD 105.
  • PepsiCo, Inc.: Baptista Research upgrades to hold from underperform with a price target raised from USD 153.50 to USD 160.30.
  • Rpm International Inc.: RBC Capital upgrades to outperform from sector perform and raises the target price from USD 121 to USD 132.
  • Slm Corporation: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 36 to USD 31.
  • Vertiv Holdings Co: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • Viking Holdings Ltd: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 66 to USD 78.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.: Seaport Global downgrades to neutral from buy.