This heralds an upcoming bare-knuckle fight between the mercurial New York hedge fund manager and the formidable corporate raider Vincent Bolloré, who controls just under a quarter of Universal's capital. Neither is a novice in such matters, but it is likely that the former is underestimating the cunning and resources of the latter.

Ackman accompanied his offer with a press release arguing that Universal's stockmarket underperformance is linked more to its Amsterdam listing than to its underlying economic performance. Through the grace of a "rerating," he claims a simple move to New York would be enough to bring the group's valuation back to its fair value.

This seems somewhat shortsighted at a time when investor distrust of the "Big Three" labels - Universal, Sony, and Warner - is at an extreme. The cartel is indeed playing a complex multi-dimensional game with artists, platforms like Meta, streaming distributors, and now AI, without anyone being able to clearly discern who has the upper hand.

To be sure, this is not the first technological revolution they have faced, from illegal downloading to the rise of streaming, and in the reshuffling of the deck currently underway, Universal certainly holds strong cards: 4 of the top 5 artists on Spotify are signed to them, as are 7 out of 10 plays on TikTok.

However, the group's economic performance remains open to question. Cash flows have stagnated for four years, while investments have continued to grow - peaking at €1bn last year, before falling back to €854m in 2025. Over the last twelve months, cash profit - or free cash flow - thus stood at €702m, significantly below the dividend distributed over the period.

The market has severely penalized this lack of visibility, such that UMG shares are currently trading at a third below their September 2021 IPO price. It is true that it has always been difficult to know which way the wind is blowing, even though it should be noted that streaming has so far been a golden opportunity for UMG, as its revenue has doubled in ten years.

In the age of generative AI, are the glory days now behind it? Nothing is less certain, even if Ackman's offer nonetheless appears tinged with optimism and is  particularly generous.