Barrick Mining has been on a roll since the surge in gold prices

The world's second-largest gold mining group is back in favor and preparing to write a new chapter in its history.

The year's results are—finally!—boosted by gold prices, which, at nearly $4,140 per ounce, are at historic highs.

In this respect, despite a significant decline in production volumes, Barrick's free cash flow reached $1.8bn in the first nine months of the year, compared with $600m for this period last year.

As a result, the group increased its quarterly dividend by 25%, and its annual $1bn share buyback program, which is already completed, was extended by $500m.

Over the first nine months of the year, $1.6bn was returned to shareholders. This is also an historic record for Barrick, formerly Barrick Gold, but now renamed Barrick Mining.

These figures should be viewed in the context of a market capitalization of $60bn and an enterprise value (market capitalization plus net debt) of $69bn, against a backdrop of a parabolic rise in the price of gold, which has doubled in two years.

Entering at such levels is far less attractive than at the beginning of the year, when the rise in the price of the precious metal, although well underway, was not yet reflected in Barrick's results.

Moreover, MarketScreener has never been kind to the major gold producers, particularly Barrick. See, for example, Barrick Gold Corporation: Behind the Myth.

However, the group is turning a new page in its history. Marc Bristow, who took the helm following its merger with Randgold, was unexpectedly dismissed in September and replaced by Chief Operating Officer Mark Hill.

The South African executive had largely lost the confidence of shareholders. Since the 2019 merger, Barrick's production has fallen by a fifth, and proven reserves by a good quarter. 

Financially, cash flows have remained under pressure, while the capital intensity of the business has increased by half.

At the same time, Barrick has made a series of mistakes in complicated geographical areas. The group is locked in a standoff with the junta in Mali, which is threatening to confiscate its assets, while the Reko Div mega-project in Pakistan, in the heart of the Balochistan tribal area, is causing serious concerns.

Saudi Arabia, long considered one of the project's sponsors, has quietly pulled out: this move has raised eyebrows.

On a more positive note, Barrick has made a major discovery in its Nevada home with the Fourmile deposit. Some analysts estimate that this project alone represents at least one-sixth of Barrick's enterprise value.