(Alliance News) - Nearly twenty years after the merger between Banca Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI, the Italian banking consolidation landscape could see a repeat of the 2007 playbook, when Crédit Agricole bolstered its Italian presence by acquiring branches and assets divested by the newly formed group, Milano Finanza reported on Thursday.

According to investment bank reconstructions, the next phase of consolidation could center on a merger between MPS and Banco BPM. Siena, led by Luigi Lovaglio, is preparing to finalize the integration of Mediobanca following the EUR14 billion tender offer, with closing expected by the third quarter, the newspaper continued.

However, any potential merger would inevitably involve Crédit Agricole, currently the largest shareholder in Banco BPM with a 22.8% stake. According to simulations cited by Deutsche Bank, the French bank's holding would be diluted to 6.5% in the combined entity.

Consequently, several investment bankers suggest the deal could include industrial compensation through the sale of assets valued close to Crédit Agricole's current stake, worth approximately EUR4.6 billion.

As reported by MF, the deal could involve around 300 branches in areas where the Banco BPM and MPS networks overlap most significantly, alongside the extension of existing partnerships in consumer credit, wealth management, and insurance.

Meanwhile, the insurance dossier remains open: the life insurance agreement between MPS and AXA is set to expire in 2027, while Banco BPM already operates its own life insurance subsidiary.

By Claudia Cavaliere, Alliance News reporter

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