Wall Street closed at record highs on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reaching new peaks. On Tuesday morning, futures added a modest flourish: Dow E-minis up 0.06%, the S&P 500 down a mere 0.09%, Nasdaq 100 off by just 0.14%. In other words, not exactly a retreat. The rally continues to hum along, perhaps a little breathless but unmistakably forward.

This ascent has been remarkable not just for its scale, but for its context. Stocks have climbed relentlessly since April, shrugging off the seasonal malaise that usually drapes August and September like a damp towel. They've powered higher even as the federal government shutdown stretches into its seventh day, delaying key economic data. If markets usually move on information, this one seems happy to move on vibes.

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, finds itself navigating with partial instruments. The jobs report is delayed; inflation figures are uncertain. Traders are betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month, drawing their confidence from softer labor indicators released before the shutdown. These reports would normally be background noise to the symphony of official data. Now, they're center stage.

Fed officials will spend the week speaking, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Governor Stephen Miran, Raphael Bostic and Neel Kashkari. When the data goes silent, language becomes the new currency. Every adjective in a speech becomes a clue.

Corporate America is doing its part to keep the rally's momentum alive. AMD jumped another 4% premarket after analyst upgrades, building on a 23.7% surge the day before, thanks to a blockbuster chip deal with OpenAI. IBM shares popped 5% on news of a partnership with Anthropic. Constellation Brands surprised to the upside, Tesla teased a more affordable Model Y, and the Intercontinental Exchange announced a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the prediction platform at $8 billion and hinting at a future where tokenization isn't fringe, it's mainstream.

Something enormous is being constructed in America: not a bridge or a monument, but a financial and technological edifice so vast that its ripples are already reaching distant shores. It isn't a gentle tide,  it's a tidal wave, and it's sweeping up everything in its path, particularly investors who would, at this point, cheerfully mortgage family heirlooms for a piece of a chipmaker.

The flows of capital coursing through this ecosystem are as impressive as they are circular. Take Nvidia: when it pledges £100 billion to finance OpenAI, part of the point is for OpenAI to spend a good chunk of that back on Nvidia's own chips. AMD, not wanting to miss the party, commits to supplying OpenAI as well—and in turn, OpenAI announces its intention to buy a 10% stake in AMD. The money may not move in perfectly straight lines, but it's all circulating within the same high-tech bloodstream.

At this stage, Nvidia and AMD are the clear winners, minting profits with every shipment of silicon. OpenAI, meanwhile, is burning through cash at a pace that would make a sovereign wealth fund blink. The wager, because it is very much a wager, is that Sam Altman's creation will become so essential, so unavoidably profitable, that one day it will finance its own monumental infrastructure. Everyone, in this optimistic future, will be paid back handsomely.

Until then, the machine must be kept running. Capital needs to move restlessly, continuously, through this network, feeding on itself like some elaborate modernist fountain. And it must be said: Silicon Valley's leading lights are remarkably adept at keeping the water flowing. Their announcements, deals, and visionary pronouncements are intoxicating to investors, who seem more than willing to believe that the laws of financial gravity have been suspended for the duration of the AI boom.

All this enthusiasm is happening against a backdrop that, on paper, might warrant caution. Valuations are stretched, economic visibility is murky, and political negotiations over the shutdown remain unresolved. It's not so much that investors are ignoring the risks: it's that they've decided the risks aren't relevant - at least not yet. 

Earnings season looms, and with government data on pause, executive commentary may suddenly wield unusual power.

Meanwhile, in France, the resignation of Sébastien Lecornu, France's short-lived prime minister (26 days), sent the Paris stockmarket index tumbling on Monday. France is currently experiencing a major political crisis, characterized by chronic governmental instability, a fragmented parliament, and growing social unrest. After the 2024 legislative elections, no clear majority emerged in the National Assembly, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to form either coalition or minority governments. One of the most recent governments, led by François Bayrou, was brought down in September 2025 by a large vote of no confidence, mainly due to the unpopularity of his proposed austerity measures. His successor, Sébastien Lecornu, was appointed in a highly unstable context without a guaranteed parliamentary majority. His decision to appoint numerous members from Macron's political party provoked dissatisfaction among other parties and ultimately forced him to resign.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan is not even consolidating after yesterday's 4.9% surge. The Nikkei 225 soared on the prospect of the arrival in power of the very accommodating Sanae Takaichi. It was up another 0.2% this morning. The stock markets in South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong are closed for a public holiday. India was up 0.3% and Australia closed down 0.3%. European leading indicators are slightly bullish, with the SToxx Europe 600 up 0.1%.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: household spending in Japan; factory orders in Germany; in France, the current account balance and the trade balance; in the United States, the trade balance. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,485
  • Gold: $3,965
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $65.34 (WTI) $61.57
  • United States 10 years: 4.16%
  • BITCOIN: $124,660

In corporate news:

  • Applied Materials launched its Kinex hybrid bonding system aimed at boosting AI chip performance with next-generation chipmaking products.
  • Boeing and Northrop Grumman are finalists in a multibillion-dollar Pentagon program to develop the U.S. Navy's next-generation stealth fighter jet, the F/A-XX.
  • Nuso announced a global partnership with Zoom to enhance communication solutions.
  • AST SpaceMobile may raise up to $800 million by selling new Class A common stock.
  • Johnson & Johnson said its Tremfya® drug showed sustained clinical and endoscopic benefits over 48 weeks in ulcerative colitis.
  • Dell raised its long-term revenue and profit growth targets, citing strong demand for AI-capable servers.
  • RTX and Anduril successfully tested a new-generation solid rocket motor.
  • Johnson & Johnson revealed new data showing its ACUVUE lenses outperformed rivals in comfort and vision clarity, including a new multifocal lens for astigmatism.
  • Eli Lilly announced four-year sustained results from its Omvoh treatment for ulcerative colitis, based on final Phase 3 trial data.
  • Invesco expanded its private market initiatives through a strengthened partnership with Barings.
  • Merck acquired Verona Pharma for $10 billion to bolster its cardiopulmonary drug portfolio.
  • Zebra Technologies and Tulip partnered to deliver mobile-first digital tools to frontline workers.
  • McCormick beat Q3 expectations but cut its annual profit outlook due to tariff-related cost pressures.
  • Paypal unveiled Ads Manager for small businesses, with rollout starting in the U.S. in early 2026.
  • Intercontinental Exchange announced a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the prediction market at $8 billion.
  • OpenAI banned multiple accounts suspected of Chinese government ties for misusing ChatGPT for surveillance tool design and phishing campaigns.
  • Mars is set to receive unconditional EU antitrust approval for its $36 billion acquisition of Kellanova, which includes brands like Pringles and Pop-Tarts.
  • Chevron is working to restart parts of its El Segundo refinery after a major fire disrupted operations.
  • Systematic hedge funds, per Goldman Sachs, have suffered daily losses in October due to crowded trades and rapid sell-offs.
  • IBM stock rose after announcing a partnership with Anthropic to integrate its Claude AI models into IBM software tools.
  • Tesla plans to unveil a lower-cost version of the Model Y in an effort to reverse declining sales.
  • GE Vernova and Samsung C&T formed an alliance to expand deployment of BWRX-300 small modular reactors outside North America.
  • Aurubis raised its 2026 copper premium to a record $315/ton amid global supply concerns.
  • Falling oil prices are pressuring the shareholder payouts of major oil companies like Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP plc, Shell, and TotalEnergies.
  • Qualtrics expands by acquiring Press Ganey for $6.75 billion.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp acquired Comerica Inc. for $10.9 billion, becoming the ninth-largest US bank.
  • Tesla to unveil a more affordable Model Y on October 7.
  • Constellation Brands reported Q2 fiscal 2026 sales of USD 2,481 million.
  • OpenAI intensifies enterprise growth through partnerships, including with Mattel.
  • Novo Nordisk's legal challenge against Medicare drug pricing plan dismissed.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Aes Corporation (The): Evercore ISI initiates coverage with an in-line recommendation and a target price of USD 15.
  • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 170 to USD 300.
  • Carmax, Inc.: Stephens downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 53 to USD 42.
  • Dollar Tree, Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to underperform from hold and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 70.
  • Dr Horton: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 185 to USD 169.
  • East West Bancorp, Inc.: Autonomous Research upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 113 to USD 116.
  • Edwards Lifesciences Corporation: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line and raises the target price from USD 80 to USD 88.
  • Emcor Group, Inc.: Goldman Sachs upgrades to neutral from sell with a price target raised from USD 495 to USD 675.
  • Federal Realty Investment Trust:
  • Fifth Third Bancorp: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt with a price target raised from USD 56 to USD 60.
  • Netflix, Inc.: Seaport Global upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 1385.
  • Smurfit Westrock Plc: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 46 to USD 52.
  • Stellantis N.v.: AlphaValue/Baader Europe downgrades to reduce from add with a price target raised from EUR 9.16 to EUR 9.23.
  • Toll Brothers, Inc.: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 169 to USD 160.