In June 2025, Brent crude prices jumped to almost $80 per barrel this year amid threats of additional US sanctions on Russian oil companies and war in Israel and Gaza. These developments resulted in a (shortlived) price spike in Brent crude. However, non-OPEC+ countries, such as the US, Canada, and Guyana pumped way more oil dragging crude oil prices. The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles also further cooled demand.

To cut a long story short: The lower average Brent crude prices in 2025—down a notable 14% y/y—impacted Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Gas' total top-line financial performance. However, ADNOC Gas made it comfortably in the last quarter.

Hitting records

ADNOC Gas posted record Q3 net income of $1.3bn, up 8% jump from the previous year, on the back of strong domestic gas sales and improved margins. The company’s quarterly revenue dipped 6% to $5.9bn from $6.2bn in Q3 FY 24, mainly due to weaker international prices for Naphtha and LPG.

The Domestic Gas Business did all the hard work this quarter, with EBITDA increasing by 26% y/y to a sweet $914m. The robust domestic demand for gas in the UAE was the main engine for profit growth. It clocked 4% increase in domestic gas sales volumes for the first nine months of the year. ADNOC Gas' international business segments posted a 9% decrease in EBITDA as weaker global commodity prices threw a spanner in their plans this quarter.

Dividend boost

The Abu Dhabi-owned gas company comes bearing good news for investors. It is planning to roll out a new quarterly distribution policy, beginning with the Q3 2025 dividend, featuring an interim dividend of $896m. The oil giant is committed to bumping up the annual dividend by 5% every year through to 2030.

Analysts are largely positive about the AGNOC Gas stock, with 13 having Buy ratings and just two on 'Hold'. They have an average target price of $1.13, implying 21.6% upside potential at its current level.

What’s next?

In the coming quarter, ADNOC Gas expects more shutdowns than usual, especially over at ADNOC LNG. However, on the bright side, Domestic Gas Products could roll in more profit thanks to some core improvements that may boost sales. The company may also part with about $3bn as part of investments this year as its MERAM project goes full throttle.

On the cards

ADNOC Gas isn't planning on sitting on its laurels for the moment. The company's proactive strategy is to handle wild market swings down the line (i.e. manage future volatility and meet growing long-term demand). They are shaking hands with Asian and European partners that involve signing long-term deals involving several billion-dollar contracts to lock in their spot in the global energy supply chain.

In November 2025, ADNOC Gas announced a 20-year natural gas supply deal with EMSTEEL, worth between $3.5bn and $4.2bn, to provide a reliable energy source for its operations. As part of this deal, ADNOC Gas will supply lower-carbon natural gas to support EMSTEEL's transition to clean electricity, a big part of the UAE's plan to hit "Net Zero by 2050".

Of course, it's not all plain sailing. ADNOC Gas faces several key risks. Some of these include the obvious ones such as exposure to fluctuating market conditions, managing huge costs that come with massive expansion projects, and of course, naturally, that massive elephant in the room: (climate change).